UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-240
+230
-230
+225
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-175
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+112
-125
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+138
-158
+140
-155
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-315
+265
-300
+280
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-310
+315
-320
Volatility Bet Value Active
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+175
-200
+175
-200
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-145
+140
-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-177
+155
-170
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Randy Brown
Vicente Luque		30.0%
70.0%
+175
-185
+175
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44201-0.44690-0.35602
Bobby Green
Lando Vannata		48.5%
51.5%
+125
-130
+130
-140
Win
Loss		-0.82187-0.85397-0.72375
Frankie Saenz
Jonathan Martinez		41.8%
58.2%
+215
-250
+220
-240
Loss
Win		-0.35893-0.36141-0.54074
Johnny Munoz
Nate Maness		46.3%
53.7%
-110
-110
-105
+100
Loss
Win		-0.69315-0.70542-0.62096
Vince Cachero
Jamall Emmers		21.3%
78.7%
+400
-450
+400
-425
Loss
Win		-0.21185-0.21721-0.23983
Cody Durden
Chris Gutierrez		22.7%
77.3%
+240
-275
+250
-280
Draw
Draw		-0.80073-0.80742-0.87014
Darren Till
Robert Whittaker		40.9%
59.1%
+150
-160
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.49809-0.47963-0.52614
Rogerio Nogueira
Mauricio Rua		33.9%
66.1%
+210
-230
+200
-225
Loss
Win		-0.37513-0.38641-0.41355
Fabricio Werdum
Alexander Gustafsson		31.4%
68.6%
+245
-274
+260
-270
Win
Loss		-1.27791-1.29455-1.15823
Carla Esparza
Marina Rodriguez		43.9%
56.1%
+175
-184
+180
-200
Win
Loss		-1.02759-1.06352-0.82314
Paul Craig
Gadzhimurad Antigulov		56.6%
43.4%
-150
+135
-145
+135
Win
Loss		-0.53234-0.53931-0.56837
Peter Sobotta
Alex Oliveira		48.3%
51.7%
-105
-110
+105
-115
Loss
Win		-0.68159-0.64714-0.65938
Rhys McKee
Khamzat Chimaev		12.2%
87.8%
+800
-1120
+900
-1200
Loss
Win		-0.10152-0.09262-0.12957
Jai Herbert
Francisco Trinaldo		38.7%
61.3%
-126
+112
-127
+120
Loss
Win		-0.78500-0.80399-0.48902
Jesse Ronson
Nicolas Dalby		28.6%
71.4%
+270
-300
+255
-275
Win
Loss		-1.34657-1.29397-1.25061
Jake Collier
Tom Aspinall		30.5%
69.5%
+330
-390
+330
-370
Loss
Win		-0.24631-0.25188-0.36452
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.