UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-240
+230
-230
+225
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-175
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+112
-125
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+138
-158
+140
-155
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-315
+265
-300
+280
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+285
-310
+300
-350
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+175
-200
+175
-200
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-145
+140
-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-177
+155
-170
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mike Grundy
Movsar Evloev		26.9%
73.1%
+150
-167
+160
-172
Loss
Win		-0.48983-0.47181-0.31401
Raphael Pessoa
Tanner Boser		27.2%
72.8%
+200
-230
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.38299-0.35539-0.31740
Bethe Correia
Pannie Kianzad		49.2%
50.8%
+145
-145
+140
-155
Loss
Win		-0.52452-0.51820-0.67649
Niklas Stolze
Ramazan Emeev		27.7%
72.3%
+335
-385
+340
-400
Loss
Win		-0.24595-0.24033-0.32371
John Castaneda
Nathaniel Wood		18.1%
81.9%
+375
-430
+370
-400
Loss
Win		-0.22264-0.23115-0.20016
Joseph Benavidez
Deiveson Figueiredo		35.4%
64.6%
+200
-220
+210
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38995-0.38205-0.43745
Jack Hermansson
Kelvin Gastelum		49.1%
50.9%
-107
-110
-105
+100
Win
Loss		-0.70007-0.68102-0.71111
Rafael Fiziev
Marc Diakiese		43.2%
56.8%
+180
-190
+175
-187
Win
Loss		-1.04703-1.03274-0.83882
Luana Carolina
Ariane Lipski		52.3%
47.7%
+110
-120
+105
-115
Loss
Win		-0.62618-0.64714-0.74051
Askar Askarov
Alexandre Pantoja		37.2%
62.8%
+175
-190
+165
-180
Win
Loss		-1.03781-1.00171-0.99002
Khadis Ibragimov
Roman Dolidze		33.7%
66.3%
+136
-150
+135
-150
Loss
Win		-0.53079-0.53232-0.41139
Nad Narimani
Grant Dawson		29.0%
71.0%
+255
-300
+270
-295
Loss
Win		-0.30903-0.30342-0.34228
Joel Alvarez
Joe Duffy		25.0%
75.0%
+215
-243
+240
-245
Win
Loss		-1.18908-1.23104-1.38733
Brett Johns
Montel Jackson		35.3%
64.7%
+235
-258
+240
-250
Win
Loss		-1.24161-1.23818-1.04032
Malcolm Gordon
Amir Albazi		38.9%
61.1%
+117
-133
+120
-130
Loss
Win		-0.58879-0.58819-0.49325
Davi Ramos
Arman Tsarukyan		27.7%
72.3%
+220
-245
+210
-230
Loss
Win		-0.35836-0.37513-0.32448
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.