UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-240
+230
-230
+225
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-175
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+112
-125
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+138
-158
+140
-155
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-315
+265
-300
+280
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+285
-325
+300
-350
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+175
-200
+175
-200
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-145
+140
-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-172
+155
-170
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Serghei Spivac
Carlos Felipe		55.7%
44.3%
-190
+165
-180
+170
Win
Loss		-0.44799-0.45218-0.58528
Dan Ige
Calvin Kattar		35.7%
64.3%
+230
-237
+210
-230
Loss
Win		-0.35650-0.37513-0.44183
Ryan Benoit
Tim Elliott		52.8%
47.2%
+143
-150
+143
-160
Loss
Win		-0.52047-0.50761-0.75092
Jimmie Rivera
Cody Stamann		53.0%
47.0%
-114
-103
-104
-105
Win
Loss		-0.66814-0.69555-0.63495
Taila Santos
Molly McCann		50.0%
50.0%
+180
-160
+175
-190
Win
Loss		-0.99188-1.03781-0.69415
Mounir Lazzez
Abdul Razak Alhassan		20.6%
79.4%
+300
-315
+300
-340
Win
Loss		-1.40454-1.43284-1.58226
John Phillips
Khamzat Chimaev		28.3%
71.7%
+425
-410
+400
-460
Loss
Win		-0.21478-0.20983-0.33243
Lerone Murphy
Ricardo Ramos		46.9%
53.1%
+160
-170
+165
-170
Win
Loss		-0.97421-0.98387-0.75764
Andreas Michailidis
Modestas Bukauskas		30.4%
69.6%
+120
-120
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.60614-0.62618-0.36183
Jared Gordon
Chris Fishgold		55.7%
44.3%
-140
+128
-135
+140
Win
Loss		-0.55799-0.54663-0.58573
Liana Jojua
Diana Belbita		46.5%
53.5%
+185
-210
+197
-220
Win
Loss		-1.08847-1.12516-0.76516
Aaron Phillips
Jack Shore		21.3%
78.7%
+700
-860
+650
-800
Loss
Win		-0.12169-0.13036-0.23958
Jorge Masvidal
Kamaru Usman		30.3%
69.7%
+240
-260
+245
-255
Loss
Win		-0.33680-0.33655-0.36035
Max Holloway
Alexander Volkanovski		31.8%
68.2%
+190
-201
+190
-190
Loss
Win		-0.41329-0.42286-0.38237
Jose Aldo
Petr Yan		27.4%
72.6%
+230
-250
+240
-260
Loss
Win		-0.34866-0.33680-0.31994
Jessica Andrade
Rose Namajunas		45.5%
54.5%
+200
-210
+205
-210
Loss
Win		-0.39742-0.39337-0.60759
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.