UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-245
+230
-230
+225
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-175
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+112
-125
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+138
-158
+140
-155
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-315
+265
-300
+280
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+285
-340
+300
-350
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+175
-200
+175
-200
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-145
+140
-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-172
+155
-170
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Paige VanZant
Amanda Ribas		27.2%
72.8%
+515
-650
+525
-650
Loss
Win		-0.16012-0.15860-0.31688
Jiri Prochazka
Volkan Oezdemir		46.1%
53.9%
+165
-183
+160
-180
Win
Loss		-1.00687-0.99188-0.77332
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Muslim Salikhov		51.2%
48.8%
+120
-135
+130
-130
Loss
Win		-0.57989-0.57054-0.71810
Danny Henry
Makwan Amirkhani		41.4%
58.6%
+160
-183
+175
-167
Loss
Win		-0.46043-0.46058-0.53396
Roman Bogatov
Leonardo Santos		38.5%
61.5%
+165
-180
+180
-185
Loss
Win		-0.45768-0.43697-0.48639
Maxim Grishin
Marcin Tybura		47.4%
52.6%
+120
-130
+120
-135
Loss
Win		-0.58819-0.57989-0.64287
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Raulian Paiva		41.0%
59.0%
+140
-146
+152
-145
Loss
Win		-0.53031-0.51498-0.52704
Vanessa Melo
Karol Rosa		39.1%
60.9%
+270
-305
+290
-250
Loss
Win		-0.29920-0.31616-0.49531
Davey Grant
Martin Day		33.9%
66.1%
-105
-105
+135
-115
Win
Loss		-0.69315-0.80896-1.08105
Dan Hooker
Dustin Poirier		29.4%
70.6%
+195
-223
+195
-220
Loss
Win		-0.39199-0.39414-0.34871
Mickey Gall
Mike Perry		32.2%
67.8%
+250
-280
+255
-290
Loss
Win		-0.32080-0.31341-0.38799
Gian Villante
Maurice Greene		39.6%
60.4%
+245
-275
+240
-265
Loss
Win		-0.32609-0.33414-0.50496
Kyle Daukaus
Brendan Allen		32.8%
67.2%
+290
-330
+270
-310
Loss
Win		-0.28035-0.29717-0.39814
Jason Witt
Takashi Sato		31.3%
68.7%
+210
-235
+210
-240
Loss
Win		-0.37185-0.36868-0.37512
Julian Erosa
Sean Woodson		21.1%
78.9%
+395
-450
+425
-500
Win
Loss		-1.65068-1.72277-1.55599
Khama Worthy
Luis Pena		27.6%
72.4%
+215
-235
+210
-240
Win
Loss		-1.17772-1.17652-1.28822
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.