UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-245
+235
-230
+225
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-175
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+112
-130
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+139
-159
+140
-155
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+180
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-170
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-315
+265
-300
+280
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+270
-330
+300
-350
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-145
+140
-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-172
+160
-170
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tanner Boser
Philipe Lins		49.6%
50.4%
+115
-130
+115
-125
Win
Loss		-0.79862-0.78794-0.70168
Jinh Yu Frey
Kay Hansen		43.8%
56.2%
+200
-225
+195
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38641-0.39414-0.57593
Youssef Zalal
Jordan Griffin		52.2%
47.8%
-127
+115
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.60300-0.58819-0.64934
Alexander Volkov
Curtis Blaydes		33.9%
66.1%
+310
-350
+295
-350
Loss
Win		-0.26535-0.27140-0.41409
Josh Emmett
Shane Burgos		40.3%
59.7%
+160
-180
+175
-190
Win
Loss		-0.99188-1.03781-0.90912
Marion Reneau
Raquel Pennington		41.5%
58.5%
+205
-225
+205
-230
Loss
Win		-0.38240-0.37899-0.53645
Lyman Good
Belal Muhammad		41.3%
58.7%
+102
-120
+100
-115
Loss
Win		-0.64398-0.65886-0.53300
Jim Miller
Roosevelt Roberts		27.1%
72.9%
+225
-260
+230
-260
Win
Loss		-1.22847-1.23650-1.30726
Clay Guida
Bobby Green		36.3%
63.7%
+230
-252
+240
-260
Loss
Win		-0.34752-0.33680-0.45133
Tecia Pennington
Brianna Van Buren		42.5%
57.5%
+200
-223
+210
-230
Win
Loss		-1.13488-1.16219-0.85649
Oskar Piechota
Marc-Andre Barriault		54.8%
45.2%
+110
-122
+115
-122
Loss
Win		-0.62235-0.61208-0.79500
Cortney Casey
Gillian Robertson		50.2%
49.8%
+105
-118
+110
-115
Loss
Win		-0.64105-0.63611-0.69687
Justin Jaynes
Frank Camacho		25.7%
74.3%
+250
-290
+270
-300
Win
Loss		-1.30542-1.34657-1.36051
Roxanne Modafferi
Lauren Murphy		46.3%
53.7%
+110
-117
+109
-120
Loss
Win		-0.63207-0.62831-0.62202
Austin Hubbard
Max Rohskopf		35.9%
64.1%
+170
-185
+165
-180
Win
Loss		-1.01993-1.00171-1.02527
Cynthia Calvillo
Jessica Eye		50.4%
49.6%
-145
+130
-140
+135
Win
Loss		-0.54726-0.54663-0.68528
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.