UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for May 3, 2025

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TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Deiveson Figueiredo
Cory Sandhagen 		27.3%
72.7%
+380
-480
+405
-500
Bo Nickal
Reinier de Ridder 		65.0%
35.0%
-312
+262
-310
+265
Daniel Rodriguez
Santiago Ponzinibbio 		55.7%
44.3%
+107
-125
+115
-125
Daniel Marcos
Montel Jackson 		43.3%
56.7%
+171
-200
+170
-190
Miesha Tate
Yana Kunitskaya 		54.2%
45.8%
-138
+120
-140
+125
Serhiy Sidey
Cameron Smotherman 		58.4%
41.6%
-135
+116
-130
+115
Mason Jones
Jeremy Stephens 		70.3%
29.7%
-550
+425
-550
+450
Don'Tale Mayes
Thomas Petersen 		33.8%
66.2%
+215
-250
+220
-250
Quang Le
Gaston Bolanos 		42.1%
57.9%
+123
-139
+125
-140
Gillian Robertson
Marina Rodriguez 		69.6%
30.4%
-310
+260
-330
+275
Azamat Bekoev
Ryan Loder 		75.5%
24.5%
-380
+315
-380
+320
Ivana Petrovic
Juliana Miller 		59.0%
41.0%
-225
+190
-225
+200
Fights for May 2, 2025
Fights for May 10, 2025

Completed Fights

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TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Robert Valentin Frey
Torrez Finney		35.3%
64.7%
+310
-355
+375
-340
Loss
Win		-0.27202-0.24094-0.43467
Dione Barbosa
Diana Belbita		73.5%
26.5%
-1000
+700
-900
+675
Win
Loss		-0.12883-0.13398-0.30765
Daniel Frunza
Rhys McKee		57.2%
42.8%
-117
+107
-125
+110
Loss
Win		-0.74957-0.77319-0.84749
Istela Nunes
Loma Lookboonmee		28.0%
72.0%
+950
-950
+650
-950
Loss
Win		-0.10009-0.13747-0.32830
Pedro Falcao
Victor Henry		29.5%
70.5%
+169
-194
+175
-185
Loss
Win		-0.44685-0.44482-0.34903
Talita Alencar
Vanessa Demopoulos		49.8%
50.2%
-125
+110
-105
+120
Win
Loss		-0.61904-0.63522-0.69816
Muin Gafurov
Brandon Moreno		30.2%
69.8%
+222
-245
+240
-240
Loss
Win		-0.36278-0.34831-0.35987
Drew Dober
Manuel Torres		49.8%
50.2%
+115
-125
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.60825-0.62755-0.68961
CJ Vergara
Edgar Chairez		32.8%
67.2%
+230
-270
+240
-265
Loss
Win		-0.34732-0.34011-0.39800
Vince Morales
Raul Rosas Jr.		17.8%
82.2%
+425
-500
+400
-450
Loss
Win		-0.20586-0.21869-0.19565
Saimon Oliveira
David Martinez		30.0%
70.0%
+550
-700
+550
-750
Loss
Win		-0.16198-0.16073-0.35736
Kevin Borjas
Ronaldo Rodriguez		44.6%
55.4%
+175
-200
+180
-190
Win
Loss		-1.04146-1.04185-0.80641
Ateba Gautier
Jose Medina		74.8%
25.2%
-450
+390
-450
+375
Win
Loss		-0.22269-0.22897-0.29073
Melquizael Costa
Christian Rodriguez		39.1%
60.9%
+180
-210
+190
-200
Win
Loss		-1.06360-1.07614-0.93958
Julia Polastri
Loopy Godinez		28.5%
71.5%
+180
-210
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.42344-0.42898-0.33542
Vinc Pichel
Rafa Garcia		29.9%
70.1%
+305
-320
+280
-300
Loss
Win		-0.28071-0.30075-0.35586
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Season Prediction Results

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 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1412-2 (0.857)0-0.42574 
Sportsbooks1412-2 (0.857)0-0.42181 
DRatings1411-3 (0.786)0-0.48907
-0.06333
-0.06726

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.