UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for May 17, 2025

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TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gilbert Burns
Michael Morales 		28.7%
71.3%
+550
-775
+650
-800
Overall Bet Value Active
Paul Craig
Rodolfo Bellato 		23.5%
76.5%
+425
-530
+450
-550
Sodiq Yusuff
Mairon Santos 		44.5%
55.5%
+116
-133
+115
-135
Dustin Stoltzfus
Nursulton Ruziboev 		33.8%
66.2%
+240
-280
+265
-300
Julian Erosa
Melquizael Costa 		45.6%
54.4%
+155
-177
+160
-175
Gabriel Green
Matheus Camilo 		39.7%
60.3%
+190
-225
+200
-230
Jared Gordon
Thiago Moises 		53.7%
46.3%
-124
+108
-125
+110
Connor Matthews
Yadier Del Valle 		23.0%
77.0%
+425
-510
+435
-500
Tainara Lisboa
Luana Santos 		39.9%
60.1%
+142
-160
+150
-160
Elise Reed
Denise Gomes 		24.2%
75.8%
+500
-650
+555
-650
Carlos Hernandez
HyunSung Park 		34.7%
65.3%
+155
-175
+160
-175
Luana Pinheiro
Tecia Pennington 		24.2%
75.8%
+280
-340
+280
-330
Fights for May 16, 2025
Fights for May 31, 2025

Completed Fights

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TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Cristian Quinonez
Khalid Taha		45.6%
54.4%
+104
-115
+112
-120
Win
Loss		-0.73771-0.76841-0.78546
Ailin Perez
Stephanie Egger		38.7%
61.3%
+222
-260
+210
-245
Loss
Win		-0.35768-0.37449-0.49012
Leon Edwards
Kamaru Usman		29.0%
71.0%
+307
-355
+320
-340
Win
Loss		-1.42924-1.44583-1.23915
Luke Rockhold
Paulo Costa		21.1%
78.9%
+285
-350
+310
-315
Loss
Win		-0.28815-0.27864-0.23680
Merab Dvalishvili
Jose Aldo		59.4%
40.6%
-145
+145
-145
+140
Win
Loss		-0.52452-0.53299-0.52121
Wu Yanan
Lucie Pudilova		40.9%
59.1%
+130
-125
+135
-145
Loss
Win		-0.57807-0.54173-0.52550
Harry Hunsucker
Tyson Pedro		15.4%
84.6%
+551
-800
+550
-740
Loss
Win		-0.15941-0.16097-0.16779
Marcin Tybura
Alexandr Romanov		21.2%
78.8%
+300
-315
+285
-325
Win
Loss		-1.39529-1.37223-1.55282
Leonardo Santos
Jared Gordon		31.7%
68.3%
+225
-265
+245
-260
Loss
Win		-0.35332-0.33743-0.38180
Luis Saldana
Sean Woodson		28.6%
71.4%
+315
-355
+330
-350
Draw
Draw		-0.85661-0.86525-0.79393
Ange Loosa
AJ Fletcher		38.9%
61.1%
+143
-163
+145
-160
Win
Loss		-0.91872-0.91937-0.94325
Francisco Figueiredo
Amir Albazi		35.8%
64.2%
+410
-495
+400
-470
Loss
Win		-0.21164-0.21717-0.44304
Jay Perrin
Aori Qileng		42.6%
57.4%
+115
-135
+115
-130
Loss
Win		-0.59314-0.60042-0.55436
Daniel Da Silva
Victor Altamirano		39.4%
60.6%
+143
-154
+145
-155
Loss
Win		-0.51805-0.51371-0.50030
Dominick Cruz
Marlon Vera		38.5%
61.5%
+180
-200
+195
-215
Loss
Win		-0.42898-0.40323-0.48578
Nate Landwehr
David Onama		34.3%
65.7%
+300
-345
+310
-345
Win
Loss		-1.41124-1.43000-1.07105
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Season Prediction Results

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 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.58610 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.57837 
DRatings128-4 (0.667)0-0.63148
-0.04538
-0.05311

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.