English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 5, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tottenham
Liverpool 		16.6%
63.3%		20.1%
+497
-220
+485
-230
0.99
2.11		3.10
o4-112
u4+100
o4+100
u4+115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 4, 2024
Games for May 6, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
West Ham United
Chelsea 		14.6%
65.1%		20.3%
+475
-193
+450
-170
2.88
o3½-110
u3½+101
o3½+100
u3½+100
1st H
32:00		0
2
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion 		25.0%
49.5%		25.5%
+170
+150
+165
+170
2.57
o3¼-106
u3½-126
o3-130
u3½-120
1st H
32:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		3.6%
87.2%		9.2%
+2250
-1000
+2300
-1250
1
5		-0.12347-0.12501-0.13716
Nottingham Forest
Sheffield United		32.1%
37.7%		30.2%
-145
+405
-150
+380
3
1		-0.55210-0.55621-1.13522
Newcastle United
Burnley		40.8%
31.2%		28.0%
+101
+246
+100
+233
4
1		-0.72247-0.73639-0.89637
Fulham
Brentford		28.2%
44.9%		26.9%
+244
+109
+235
+105
0
0		-1.38625-1.38721-1.31193
Bournemouth
Arsenal		5.8%
82.2%		12.0%
+1225
-444
+1171
-500
0
3		-0.23414-0.22666-0.19600
Everton
Luton Town		53.8%
21.7%		24.5%
+152
+181
+150
+180
1
1		-1.33895-1.31119-1.40678
Tottenham
Chelsea		26.4%
48.5%		25.1%
+165
+145
+165
+140
0
2		-0.92920-0.91854-0.72313
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-347
+1075
-360
+975
2
0		-0.27694-0.28523-0.21072
Arsenal
Tottenham		36.6%
36.5%		26.9%
-132
+346
-130
+340
3
2		-0.58419-0.60629-1.00529
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		40.8%
31.3%		27.9%
+263
+100
+250
+120
0
3		-0.71119-0.78185-1.16178
Chelsea
Aston Villa		38.9%
33.2%		27.9%
+241
+110
+220
+105
2
2		-1.41494-1.45985-1.27737
Brentford
Everton		21.8%
53.9%		24.3%
+150
+196
+155
+195
0
1		-1.10452-1.10676-0.61823
Burnley
Manchester United		13.1%
67.3%		19.6%
+465
-197
+450
-200
1
1		-1.68072-1.64046-1.62923
Crystal Palace
Fulham		30.5%
41.5%		28.1%
+264
+112
+255
+110
1
1		-1.31494-1.28497-1.27029
Sheffield United
Newcastle United		8.4%
75.7%		15.9%
+1200
-433
+1000
-460
1
5		-0.22846-0.24222-0.27830
Luton Town
Wolverhampton		12.0%
68.3%		19.7%
+295
-108
+290
-105
1
2		-0.68065-0.69699-0.38120
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.69607 
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.70120 
DRatings42-1-1 (0.625)0-0.87017
-0.17410
-0.16896

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/28/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (25-5-5, 80 pts)26.65.75.885.529.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester City (24-3-7, 79 pts)26.63.67.887.670.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (22-4-9, 75 pts)23.64.79.780.40.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-8-7, 67 pts)21.09.27.870.80.0%80.0%20.0%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-9-6, 60 pts)20.110.67.367.60.0%20.0%77.9%0.0%
6Manchester United (16-12-6, 54 pts)17.413.57.159.40.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
7Newcastle United (16-13-5, 53 pts)17.814.16.159.40.0%0.0%1.5%0.0%
8West Ham United (13-12-10, 49 pts)14.013.210.852.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Chelsea (13-11-9, 48 pts)15.212.410.456.10.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
10Bournemouth (13-13-9, 48 pts)13.814.49.851.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Wolverhampton (13-15-7, 46 pts)13.616.77.748.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Brighton and Hove Albion (11-12-11, 44 pts)12.213.612.248.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Fulham (12-16-7, 43 pts)13.117.27.747.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (10-15-10, 40 pts)10.916.210.843.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (12-15-8, 38 pts)13.215.98.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Brentford (9-18-8, 35 pts)9.919.38.838.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (7-19-9, 26 pts)8.020.29.829.90.0%0.0%0.0%26.0%
18Luton Town (6-22-7, 25 pts)6.523.77.727.40.0%0.0%0.0%87.1%
19Burnley (5-21-9, 24 pts)5.822.49.827.10.0%0.0%0.0%86.9%
20Sheffield United (3-25-7, 16 pts)3.626.67.818.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.