UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for May 11, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rodrigo Nascimento
Derrick Lewis 		45.6%
54.4%
+145
-145
+140
-145
All Bet Values Active
Carlos Ulberg
Alonzo Menifield 		72.5%
27.5%
-200
+195
-215
+185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Esteban Ribovics
Terrance McKinney 		55.2%
44.8%
+165
+165
-180
+165
All Bet Values Active
Tecia Pennington
Tabatha Ricci 		48.0%
52.0%
+122
+110
+115
-125
All Bet Values Active
Jake Hadley
Charles Johnson 		45.5%
54.5%
-164
+144
-170
+155
Sean Woodson
Alex Caceres 		54.4%
45.6%
+160
+159
-190
+170
All Bet Values Active
Robelis Despaigne
Waldo Cortes-Acosta 		53.5%
46.5%
+145
+142
-160
+145
All Bet Values Active
Viacheslav Borshchev
Chase Hooper 		53.7%
46.3%
+155
+145
-170
+155
All Bet Values Active
Trey Waters
Billy Goff 		48.1%
51.9%
-160
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Jousset
Jared Gooden 		63.4%
36.6%
-220
+200
-220
+200
Veronica Macedo
JJ Aldrich 		51.2%
48.8%
-145
+135
-145
+135
Mateusz Rebecki
Diego Ferreira 		66.7%
33.3%
-280
+240
-280
+230
Nursulton Ruziboev
Joaquin Buckley 		34.6%
65.4%
+128
-148
+130
-150
Fights for May 10, 2024
Fights for Jun 1, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Muin Gafurov
Alexandre Pantoja		38.7%
61.3%
+167
-165
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.47095-0.45497-0.48937
Jose Aldo
Jonathan Martinez		53.9%
46.1%
+150
+135
+152
-160
Win
Loss		-0.72456-0.93639-0.61878
Vitor Petrino
Anthony Smith		75.7%
24.3%
-400
+395
-425
+375
Loss
Win		-1.60142-1.57799-1.41297
Ihor Potieria
Michel Pereira		23.1%
76.9%
+415
-450
+390
-475
Loss
Win		-0.21295-0.22077-0.26305
Caio Borralho
Paul Craig		73.8%
26.2%
-500
+450
-500
+450
Win
Loss		-0.19737-0.19737-0.30319
Joanderson Brito
Jack Shore		51.7%
48.3%
-185
+170
-185
+180
Win
Loss		-0.45144-0.43838-0.65877
Iasmin Lucindo
Karolina Kowalkiewicz		65.0%
35.0%
-365
+295
-400
+330
Win
Loss		-0.27954-0.25519-0.43080
Myktybek Orolbai
Elves Brenner		65.6%
34.4%
-250
+230
-230
+225
Win
Loss		-0.35364-0.36566-0.42178
Drakkar Klose
Joaquim Silva		56.3%
43.7%
-185
+180
-200
+190
Win
Loss		-0.43838-0.41690-0.57419
Jamie Mullarkey
Mauricio Ruffy		46.1%
53.9%
+225
-240
+210
-220
Loss
Win		-0.36179-0.38472-0.61772
Ernesta Kareckaite
Dione Barbosa		41.7%
58.3%
+200
-226
+200
-225
Loss
Win		-0.39260-0.39304-0.54003
Vinc Pichel
Ismael Bonfim		27.1%
72.9%
+450
-550
+435
-535
Loss
Win		-0.19464-0.20037-0.31596
Kevin Borjas
Alessandro Costa		40.7%
59.3%
+125
-130
+105
-125
Loss
Win		-0.58016-0.63023-0.52190
Alex Perez
Matheus Nicolau		37.2%
62.8%
+160
-170
+150
-165
Win
Loss		-0.96964-0.93869-0.99010
Bogdan Guskov
Ryan Spann		37.1%
62.9%
+160
-180
+170
-180
Win
Loss		-0.98262-1.00641-0.99161
Karine Silva
Ariane Lipski		48.8%
51.2%
-165
+150
-168
+160
Win
Loss		-0.49617-0.47844-0.71744
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1311-2 (0.846)0-0.48150 
Sportsbooks1311-2 (0.846)0-0.49784 
DRatings1312-1 (0.923)0-0.55142
-0.06993
-0.05358

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.