UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for May 18, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Melissa Gatto
Tamires Vidal 		69.9%
30.1%
-400
+310
-380
+320
Tuco Tokkos
Oumar Sy 		26.9%
73.1%
+425
-550
+405
-500
Tom Nolan
Victor Martinez 		76.6%
23.4%
-455
+375
-425
+375
Angela Hill
Luana Pinheiro 		45.3%
54.7%
-141
+125
-140
+130
Overall Bet Value Active
Vinicius Salvador
Adrian Yanez 		28.0%
72.0%
+375
-415
+340
-400
Ramiz Brahimaj
Themba Gorimbo 		45.1%
54.9%
+130
-140
+125
-142
Carlston Harris
Khaos Williams 		44.6%
55.4%
+111
-125
+105
-118
Lerone Murphy
Edson Barboza 		55.0%
45.0%
-159
+140
-150
+138
Fights for May 17, 2024
Fights for Jun 1, 2024

Fights In Progress

TimeFightersOrig.
Win %		Closing
ML
Warlley Alves
Abus Magomedov 		36.8%
63.2%
+275
-315
+260
-300

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Jose Aldo
Jonathan Martinez		53.9%
46.1%
+150
+135
+152
-160
Win
Loss		-0.72456-0.93639-0.61878
Vitor Petrino
Anthony Smith		75.7%
24.3%
-400
+395
-425
+375
Loss
Win		-1.60142-1.57799-1.41297
Ihor Potieria
Michel Pereira		23.1%
76.9%
+415
-450
+390
-475
Loss
Win		-0.21295-0.22077-0.26305
Caio Borralho
Paul Craig		73.8%
26.2%
-500
+450
-500
+450
Win
Loss		-0.19737-0.19737-0.30319
Joanderson Brito
Jack Shore		51.7%
48.3%
-185
+170
-185
+180
Win
Loss		-0.45144-0.43838-0.65877
Iasmin Lucindo
Karolina Kowalkiewicz		65.0%
35.0%
-365
+295
-400
+330
Win
Loss		-0.27954-0.25519-0.43080
Myktybek Orolbai
Elves Brenner		65.6%
34.4%
-250
+230
-230
+225
Win
Loss		-0.35364-0.36566-0.42178
Drakkar Klose
Joaquim Silva		56.3%
43.7%
-185
+180
-200
+190
Win
Loss		-0.43838-0.41690-0.57419
Jamie Mullarkey
Mauricio Ruffy		46.1%
53.9%
+225
-240
+210
-220
Loss
Win		-0.36179-0.38472-0.61772
Ernesta Kareckaite
Dione Barbosa		41.7%
58.3%
+200
-226
+200
-225
Loss
Win		-0.39260-0.39304-0.54003
Vinc Pichel
Ismael Bonfim		27.1%
72.9%
+450
-550
+435
-535
Loss
Win		-0.19464-0.20037-0.31596
Kevin Borjas
Alessandro Costa		40.7%
59.3%
+125
-130
+105
-125
Loss
Win		-0.58016-0.63023-0.52190
Alex Perez
Matheus Nicolau		37.2%
62.8%
+160
-170
+150
-165
Win
Loss		-0.96964-0.93869-0.99010
Bogdan Guskov
Ryan Spann		37.1%
62.9%
+160
-180
+170
-180
Win
Loss		-0.98262-1.00641-0.99161
Karine Silva
Ariane Lipski		48.8%
51.2%
-165
+150
-168
+160
Win
Loss		-0.49617-0.47844-0.71744
Jhonata Diniz
Austen Lane		59.8%
40.2%
-325
+290
-330
+285
Win
Loss		-0.28916-0.29152-0.51421
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks126-6 (0.500)0-0.81651 
Sportsbooks126-6 (0.500)0-0.79762 
DRatings126-6 (0.500)0-0.74472
0.07178
0.05290

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.