German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 6 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/11/2024 01:30 PM	Eintracht Frankfurt Borussia Monchengladbach	23.5% 54.8%	21.7%	+155 +172 +155 +161	1 1	-1.34788-1.34285	-1.52841
05/10/2024 06:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Augsburg	31.5% 43.3%	25.2%	-128 +305 -130 +310	1 0	-0.60789-0.60728	-1.15483
05/05/2024 05:30 PM	Mainz 05 FC Heidenheim	42.5% 31.7%	25.8%	+146 +201 +145 +188	1 1	-1.27690-1.28471	-1.35421
05/05/2024 03:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen Eintracht Frankfurt	42.4% 32.7%	24.8%	+144 +194 +140 +200	5 1	-0.91862-0.90589	-0.85713
05/05/2024 01:30 PM	VfL Bochum Union Berlin	14.2% 67.0%	18.7%	+305 +102 +320 -105	4 3	-1.41828-1.47124	-1.94919
05/04/2024 04:30 PM	Freiburg FC Koln	36.0% 37.9%	26.1%	+193 +145 +190 +139	0 0	-1.33382-1.33128	-1.34408
05/04/2024 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich VfB Stuttgart	65.8% 15.6%	18.5%	+160 +165 +190 +155	1 3	-0.99277-0.92299	-1.85579
05/04/2024 01:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Werder Bremen	41.0% 34.0%	25.0%	+235 +115 +220 +120	2 2	-1.36924-1.34500	-1.38790
05/04/2024 01:30 PM	Augsburg Dortmund	12.4% 71.3%	16.3%	+243 +104 +240 +105	1 5	-0.73482-0.73491	-0.33869
05/04/2024 01:30 PM	Darmstadt 98 Wolfsburg	19.5% 59.5%	21.0%	+864 -315 +850 -310	0 3	-0.30716-0.32281	-0.51955
05/03/2024 06:30 PM	RB Leipzig Hoffenheim	44.0% 31.4%	24.7%	-190 +440 -200 +425	1 1	-1.71920-1.72783	-1.39922
04/28/2024 05:30 PM	FC Heidenheim Darmstadt 98	23.8% 53.1%	23.1%	+118 +229 +118 +220	1 0	-0.80824-0.82351	-1.43418
04/28/2024 03:30 PM	FC Koln Mainz 05	24.7% 52.4%	22.9%	+490 -170 +490 -177	1 1	-1.50765-1.49884	-1.47338
04/28/2024 01:30 PM	Union Berlin Borussia Monchengladbach	24.3% 52.4%	23.3%	+186 +160 +188 +150	0 0	-1.27257-1.26429	-1.45856
04/27/2024 04:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Bayer 04 Leverkusen	12.8% 70.3%	16.9%	+316 -118 +310 -120	2 2	-1.43624-1.41535	-1.77537
04/27/2024 01:30 PM	Wolfsburg Freiburg	17.0% 62.5%	20.5%	+225 +132 +215 +125	2 1	-1.19885-1.18633	-1.77237

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	9	7-1-1 (0.833)	0	-0.70701
Sportsbooks	9	7-1-1 (0.833)	0	-0.71361
DRatings	9	5-3-1 (0.611)	0	-0.92069	-0.21368 -0.20708

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/12/24

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (27-0-6, 87 pts)	27.4	0.3	6.3	88.6	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Bayern Munich (23-7-3, 72 pts)	23.7	7.1	3.2	74.2	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	VfB Stuttgart (22-7-4, 70 pts)	22.3	7.5	4.3	71.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	RB Leipzig (19-7-7, 64 pts)	19.5	7.2	7.3	65.9	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Dortmund (17-7-9, 60 pts)	17.4	7.3	9.3	61.6	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Eintracht Frankfurt (11-9-13, 46 pts)	11.2	9.5	13.3	46.9	0.0%	0.0%	92.2%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-14-7, 43 pts)	12.1	14.7	7.2	43.6	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-13-9, 42 pts)	11.4	13.3	9.3	43.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	FC Heidenheim (9-12-12, 39 pts)	9.2	12.5	12.3	39.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Werder Bremen (10-14-9, 39 pts)	10.3	14.4	9.3	40.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Augsburg (10-14-9, 39 pts)	10.3	14.4	9.3	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Wolfsburg (10-16-7, 37 pts)	10.2	16.4	7.3	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Borussia Monchengladbach (7-13-13, 34 pts)	7.5	13.3	13.3	35.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	VfL Bochum (7-14-12, 33 pts)	7.4	14.3	12.3	34.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.8%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (6-13-14, 32 pts)	6.4	13.2	14.3	33.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.9%	0.0%
16	Union Berlin (8-19-6, 30 pts)	8.3	19.4	6.3	31.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	65.6%	21.7%
17	FC Koln (5-16-12, 27 pts)	5.5	16.2	12.3	28.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	21.7%	78.3%
18	Darmstadt 98 (3-22-8, 17 pts)	3.3	22.4	8.3	18.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.