Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 19, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Cagliari
Sassuolo 		17.8%
61.2%		21.0%
+210
+138
+204
+135
0.99
2.02		3.01
o2½-116
u2½+106
o2½-115
u2½+105
Empoli
Udinese 		20.4%
56.3%		23.2%
+345
-102
+290
+105
0.97
1.78		2.75
o2-144
u2¼-116
o2-140
u2+120
Frosinone
Monza 		16.9%
60.6%		22.4%
+136
+206
+135
+191
0.85
1.83		2.68
o2¾-108
u2¾-106
o2½-140
u2½+120
Lazio
Inter 		11.6%
70.9%		17.4%
+408
-146
+382
-155
0.82
2.32		3.14
o2¾-107
u2¾-107
o2½-140
u2½+120
Genoa
Roma 		12.4%
69.2%		18.4%
+630
-195
+565
-205
0.81
2.21		3.02
o2½-115
u2½+105
o2½-120
u2½+105
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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lazio
Monza		35.6%
36.6%		27.8%
-118
+362
-120
+350
2
2		-1.35565-1.31513-1.27970
Bologna
Torino		24.2%
51.2%		24.6%
+205
+179
+195
+187
0
0		-1.10679-1.09184-1.40283
Sassuolo
Fiorentina		15.5%
65.2%		19.3%
+535
-167
+520
-165
1
5		-0.48843-0.49837-0.42820
Empoli
Atalanta		7.2%
80.2%		12.6%
+600
-200
+615
-220
0
2		-0.42751-0.41491-0.22051
Roma
Napoli		23.5%
52.5%		23.9%
+301
-102
+300
-105
2
2		-1.33264-1.32013-1.42941
Udinese
Bologna		26.9%
47.7%		25.4%
+540
-154
+515
-165
1
1		-1.37011-1.38226-1.37129
Torino
Inter		7.2%
78.9%		13.9%
+590
-173
+575
-190
0
2		-0.47278-0.46844-0.23685
Hellas Verona
Lazio		16.4%
63.1%		20.5%
+500
-161
+485
-155
0
1		-0.50732-0.52562-0.46085
Milan
Juventus		26.8%
46.7%		26.5%
+280
+119
+270
+115
0
0		-1.23756-1.23162-1.32682
Roma
Udinese		40.8%
32.1%		27.1%
+292
+386

2
1		-1.40597-0.89771
Inter
Milan		37.2%
34.8%		28.0%
+107
+284
+105
+270
2
1		-0.74488-0.75683-0.99021
Bologna
Roma		14.7%
66.0%		19.3%
+265
+140
+241
+135
3
1		-1.31308-1.26723-1.91909
Atalanta
Monza		52.1%
24.1%		23.8%
-110
+325
-105
+291
2
1		-0.66530-0.70938-0.65177
Frosinone
Torino		16.9%
60.7%		22.4%
+440
-139
+415
-140
0
0		-1.36449-1.37484-1.49803
Udinese
Hellas Verona		27.9%
45.9%		26.1%
+200
+185
+195
+179
0
1		-1.06912-1.06178-0.77801
Napoli
Empoli		59.0%
18.8%		22.1%
-147
+426
-140
+400
0
1		-1.68832-1.64222-1.67052
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.97204 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.96063 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.04563
-0.07359
-0.08500

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.