Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 19, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar 		13.4%
68.6%		18.1%
+620
-222
+540
-230
0.91
2.30		3.21
o3-112
u3+105

Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam 		31.9%
41.0%		27.1%
+257
+100
+255
-105
1.13
1.33		2.46
o3¼-102
u3+117

Twente
Zwolle 		64.0%
15.7%		20.3%
-337
+863
-370
+870
2.06
0.91		2.97
o3¼-118
u3½-120

NEC Nijmegen
Almere City 		34.2%
36.7%		29.0%
+130
+185
+135
+180
1.08
1.13		2.21
o2¾-117
u2¾-102

RKC Waalwijk
PSV Eindhoven 		4.2%
87.0%		8.9%
+1055
-462
+1100
-550
0.65
3.32		3.97
o4-141
u4½-130

Go Ahead Eagles
Volendam 		56.9%
19.7%		23.4%
-174
+420
-185
+420
1.75
0.93		2.68
o3½-103
u3½-105

Fortuna Sittard
Heracles Almelo 		38.1%
34.7%		27.2%
+177
+144
+180
+145
1.27
1.20		2.47
o3-112
u3-104

Excelsior
Feyenoord 		3.8%
87.1%		9.1%
+808
-362
+815
-400
0.56
3.14		3.70
o4-111
u4-105

Ajax
Vitesse 		59.3%
18.9%		21.8%
-168
+400
-190
+446
1.94
0.99		2.93
o3½-115
u3½+101

Games for May 18, 2024
Games for May 20, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
PSV Eindhoven
Fortuna Sittard		69.7%
13.1%		17.2%
-310
+822
-365
+850
1
1		-1.83646-1.86795-1.75846
Volendam
Twente		3.1%
88.9%		8.1%
+3000
-1425
+2500
-1500
2
7		-0.10007-0.11363-0.11821
Heracles Almelo
Excelsior		26.3%
47.2%		26.5%
+358
-139
+340
-140
0
4		-0.56634-0.58927-0.75171
AZ Alkmaar
Go Ahead Eagles		53.3%
23.0%		23.6%
-146
+380
-155
+375
3
0		-0.55040-0.55012-0.62843
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht		21.8%
55.0%		23.3%
+319
-119
+330
-135
1
0		-1.46547-1.51113-1.52478
Almere City
Ajax		9.7%
73.9%		16.4%
+1000
-400
+1050
-450
0
3		-0.27159-0.25156-0.30248
Vitesse
Heerenveen		12.5%
69.5%		18.0%
+420
-157
+380
-170
3
1		-1.66903-1.62030-2.08000
Feyenoord
NEC Nijmegen		66.6%
14.1%		19.3%
-137
+355
-150
+360
3
2		-0.57544-0.56217-0.40653
Zwolle
RKC Waalwijk		21.5%
55.2%		23.3%
+397
-159
+395
-170
1
1		-1.55637-1.56528-1.45620
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior		40.1%
31.4%		28.5%
+210
+129
+190
+125
3
0		-1.16264-1.11581-0.91409
Zwolle
Feyenoord		3.9%
87.2%		8.8%
+2087
-981
+2000
-1150
0
5		-0.13191-0.13307-0.13669
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		27.9%
46.7%		25.4%
+251
+125
+230
+120
1
2		-0.82830-0.83884-0.76228
Ajax
Volendam		75.3%
8.9%		15.7%
-351
+890
-360
+800
4
1		-0.27258-0.29389-0.28345
Vitesse
Utrecht		12.8%
69.5%		17.7%
+942
-351
+875
-370
0
1		-0.28072-0.29030-0.36455
RKC Waalwijk
Heracles Almelo		27.1%
47.0%		25.9%
+196
+133
+200
+120
5
0		-1.11158-1.14841-1.30427
Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven		5.0%
85.0%		10.0%
+1642
-714
+1640
-800
2
4		-0.16486-0.16864-0.16217
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.