Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 18, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Porto
Braga 		37.3%
34.5%		28.2%
+107
+237
+105
+235
1.19
1.13		2.32
o3¼-103
u3½-139

Games for May 17, 2024
Games for May 19, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Estoril
Moreirense 		19.3%
56.0%		24.7%
+236
+125
+245
+120
2.47
o2½-104
u2½-107

2nd H
65:00		1
1
Chaves
Sporting CP 		3.8%
86.5%		9.7%
+2800
-1363
+2100
-1500
3.49
o4¼-110
u4½-125

2nd H
56:00		0
3

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Arouca		34.7%
35.0%		30.3%
+127
+213
+130
+195
3
1		-0.85320-0.88317-1.05814
FC Vizela
Boavista		22.0%
52.6%		25.4%
+337
+104
+255
+110
2
2		-1.21574-1.27447-1.37148
Portimonense
SC Farense		20.6%
52.5%		26.9%
+121
+196
+120
+180
3
1		-0.82608-0.83977-1.58163
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela		26.5%
45.8%		27.7%
+373
-142
+375
-145
0
1		-0.57492-0.57263-0.78036
Benfica
Rio Ave		67.6%
12.7%		19.7%
-243
+603
-245
+610
1
1		-1.71713-1.65921-1.62399
Casa Pia AC
Famalicao		22.1%
53.4%		24.6%
+462
-173
+390
-150
2
1		-1.75962-1.63897-1.51172
Boavista
Porto		4.7%
84.1%		11.2%
+1712
-725
+1750
-800
1
2		-0.17673-0.16485-0.17304
Moreirense
Casa Pia AC		34.1%
36.3%		29.6%
+186
+169
+190
+165
1
0		-1.08607-1.11355-1.07482
Arouca
Benfica		5.1%
83.1%		11.8%
+843
-345
+810
-375
0
5		-0.28684-0.28602-0.18523
SC Farense
Gil Vicente FC		23.4%
49.2%		27.4%
+357
-134
+360
-135
0
2		-0.59167-0.60462-0.70952
Braga
Vitoria		37.9%
33.9%		28.2%
+121
+234
+120
+205
3
2		-0.82223-0.83637-0.97072
Sporting CP
Estoril		73.0%
9.7%		17.4%
-264
+686
-270
+670
1
0		-0.35820-0.36394-0.31523
Estrela
FC Vizela		31.5%
39.5%		28.9%
+108
+255
+105
+250
0
4		-1.30346-1.30280-0.92811
Rio Ave
Portimonense		40.8%
28.9%		30.4%
+200
+145
+205
+135
2
2		-1.26713-1.25956-1.19211
Famalicao
Chaves		32.4%
39.6%		27.9%
+149
+199
+145
+190
1
0		-0.94369-0.94631-1.12559
Benfica
Famalicao		74.6%
9.7%		15.7%
-237
+601
-260
+625
0
2		-1.98348-2.03042-2.33811
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks53-0-2 (0.800)0-1.03741 
Sportsbooks53-0-2 (0.800)0-1.04585 
DRatings51-2-2 (0.400)0-1.28312
-0.24571
-0.23727

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).