France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 3, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Montpellier
Toulouse 		32.9%
40.8%		26.3%
+234
+114

1.22
1.38		2.60
o2¾-113
u3-138

Lorient
Lens 		15.7%
63.7%		20.6%
+650
-228

0.89
2.03		2.92
o2¾-113
u3-135

Games for May 2, 2024
Games for May 4, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lens
Marseille		18.6%
59.0%		22.4%
+226
+125
+215
+125
1
2		-0.83949-0.86140-0.52726
Monaco
Lyon		31.7%
42.7%		25.6%
+186
+140
+175
+130
2
3		-0.89104-0.88020-0.85043
Brest
Rennes		20.0%
57.2%		22.8%
+261
+120
+235
+125
5
4		-1.31334-1.25836-1.61099
Toulouse
Lorient		28.3%
46.0%		25.8%
+201
+150
+170
+160
2
1		-1.11893-1.04120-1.26397
Reims
Clermont Foot		35.3%
34.3%		30.3%
+110
+249
+110
+235
1
4		-1.27751-1.26008-1.06921
Nice
Strasbourg		27.9%
45.6%		26.5%
+125
+257
+125
+235
3
1		-0.83374-0.86034-1.27654
Lille
Metz		55.9%
19.9%		24.2%
-150
+462
-160
+465
2
1		-0.53839-0.53631-0.58209
Le Havre
Paris Saint-Germain		3.0%
88.5%		8.6%
+885
-311
+850
-320
3
3		-1.78082-1.73738-2.45795
Nantes
Montpellier		25.7%
49.2%		25.1%
+280
+107
+275
+100
1
1		-1.31476-1.31420-1.38334
Nice
Marseille		14.1%
65.7%		20.2%
+261
+125
+255
+125
2
2		-1.22237-1.21190-1.60092
Lille
Monaco		27.6%
46.7%		25.7%
+198
+142
+185
+140
0
1		-0.89911-0.92352-0.76093
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient		75.6%
9.0%		15.4%
-240
+631
-250
+605
4
1		-0.38128-0.38202-0.28007
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		6.7%
80.7%		12.5%
+415
-168
+425
-175
1
4		-0.50071-0.49989-0.21406
Marseille
Toulouse		48.3%
26.2%		25.5%
+174
+173
+165
+175
2
2		-1.23829-1.22622-1.36814
Monaco
Brest		38.4%
34.8%		26.7%
+173
+164
+170
+155
2
0		-1.02918-1.04035-0.95709
Montpellier
Reims		29.6%
43.3%		27.1%
+221
+124
+230
+110
2
1		-1.19060-1.24223-1.21841
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks74-3-0 (0.571)0-0.97321 
Sportsbooks74-3-0 (0.571)0-0.95684 
DRatings73-4-0 (0.429)0-1.02578
-0.05258
-0.06894

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/22/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (19-1-9, 66 pts)22.71.59.877.8100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (16-6-7, 55 pts)18.07.68.462.40.0%87.5%12.5%0.0%
3Brest (15-7-8, 53 pts)16.48.49.258.40.0%36.4%62.3%0.0%
4Lille (14-5-10, 52 pts)16.36.311.460.20.0%74.1%25.6%0.0%
5Nice (13-8-8, 47 pts)14.610.19.353.00.0%1.7%52.6%0.0%
6Lens (13-10-7, 46 pts)14.511.38.251.60.0%0.3%32.1%0.0%
7Rennes (11-10-9, 42 pts)12.711.210.148.20.0%0.0%3.6%0.0%
8Lyon (12-13-5, 41 pts)13.614.36.146.90.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%
9Marseille (10-9-10, 40 pts)12.410.311.448.50.0%0.0%10.0%0.0%
10Reims (11-12-7, 40 pts)12.313.68.145.10.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%
11Toulouse (9-11-10, 37 pts)10.112.711.141.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Montpellier (9-11-10, 37 pts)10.312.511.242.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Strasbourg (9-12-9, 36 pts)10.513.310.241.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Nantes (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.418.45.236.40.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%
15Metz (8-17-5, 29 pts)8.719.45.932.10.0%0.0%0.0%27.4%
16Le Havre (6-14-10, 28 pts)6.816.310.931.20.0%0.0%0.0%34.3%
17Lorient (6-15-8, 26 pts)7.317.59.331.10.0%0.0%0.0%43.0%
18Clermont Foot (4-16-10, 22 pts)5.117.911.126.30.0%0.0%0.0%94.3%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.