UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for May 4, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Muin Gafurov
Alexandre Pantoja 		38.7%
61.3%
+190
-205
+215
-240
Overall Bet Value Active
Jose Aldo
Jonathan Martinez 		53.9%
46.1%
+115
-135
+115
-130
Vitor Petrino
Anthony Smith 		70.6%
29.4%
+400
+390
-500
+400
All Bet Values Active
Caio Borralho
Paul Craig 		73.8%
26.2%
+400
+350
-450
+375
All Bet Values Active
Joanderson Brito
Jack Shore 		51.7%
48.3%
+145
+140
-150
+142
All Bet Values Active
Iasmin Lucindo
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 		65.0%
35.0%
-325
+280
-350
+295
Myktybek Orolbai
Elves Brenner 		65.6%
34.4%
+218
+200
-250
+215
All Bet Values Active
William Gomis
Jean Silva 		44.7%
55.3%
+115
+116
+125
-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Drakkar Klose
Joaquim Silva 		56.3%
43.7%
+160
+160
-185
+165
Volatility Bet Value Active
Jamie Mullarkey
Mauricio Ruffy 		46.1%
53.9%
+135
+145
+140
-160
Volatility Bet Value Active
Ernesta Kareckaite
Dione Barbosa 		41.7%
58.3%
+185
-220
+175
-200
Vinc Pichel
Ismael Bonfim 		27.1%
72.9%
+375
-450
+350
-435
Kevin Borjas
Alessandro Costa 		40.7%
59.3%
+116
-136
+120
-140
Ihor Potieria
Michel Pereira 		23.1%
76.9%
+290
-365
+320
-400
Fights for May 3, 2024
Fights for May 11, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Alex Perez
Matheus Nicolau		37.2%
62.8%
+160
-170
+150
-165
Win
Loss		-0.96964-0.93869-0.99010
Bogdan Guskov
Ryan Spann		37.1%
62.9%
+160
-180
+170
-180
Win
Loss		-0.98262-1.00641-0.99161
Karine Silva
Ariane Lipski		48.8%
51.2%
-165
+150
-168
+160
Win
Loss		-0.49617-0.47844-0.71744
Jhonata Diniz
Austen Lane		59.8%
40.2%
-325
+290
-330
+285
Win
Loss		-0.28916-0.29152-0.51421
David Onama
Jonathan Pearce		35.1%
64.9%
+140
-150
+135
-145
Win
Loss		-0.89199-0.87165-1.04663
Uros Medic
Tim Means		64.8%
35.2%
-240
+220
-250
+250
Win
Loss		-0.36652-0.33647-0.43363
Victor Henry
Rani Yahya		70.8%
29.2%
-365
+301
-340
+335
Win
Loss		-0.27589-0.26044-0.34463
Michal Figlak
Austin Hubbard		63.6%
36.4%
-180
+170
-170
+160
Loss
Win		-1.00641-0.96964-1.01126
Caio Machado
Don'Tale Mayes		48.3%
51.7%
-130
+120
-120
+125
Loss
Win		-0.80802-0.80078-0.66041
Ketlen Souza
Marnic Mann		68.4%
31.6%
-340
+295
-340
+295
Win
Loss		-0.28338-0.28338-0.37987
Chris Padilla
James Llontop		29.0%
71.0%
+365
-425
+365
-450
Win
Loss		-1.56117-1.56959-1.23760
Na Liang
Ivana Petrovic		30.3%
69.7%
+350
-450
+400
-420
Loss
Win		-0.24028-0.22123-0.36038
Hayisaer Maheshate
Gabriel Benitez		65.6%
34.4%
-220
+190
-230
+210
Win
Loss		-0.40651-0.38037-0.42143
Jamahal Hill
Alex Pereira		40.2%
59.8%
+122
-130
+130
-125
Loss
Win		-0.58609-0.57807-0.51333
Yan Xiaonan
Zhang Weili		30.0%
70.0%
+410
-425
+425
-500
Loss
Win		-0.21690-0.20586-0.35615
Max Holloway
Justin Gaethje		41.4%
58.6%
+155
-160
+175
-165
Win
Loss		-0.94358-0.99777-0.88104
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks137-6 (0.538)0-0.65983 
Sportsbooks137-6 (0.538)0-0.64682 
DRatings137-6 (0.538)0-0.70071
-0.04088
-0.05389

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.