MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 29, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Yankees (18-10)
Baltimore Orioles (17-9)
Clarke Schmidt
Grayson Rodriguez
41.9%
58.1%
+121
-130
+122
-130
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+160
3.97
4.81
8.78
o9-115
u9+102
o9-105
u9+100
Washington Nationals (12-14)
Miami Marlins (6-22)
Jake Irvin
Trevor Rogers
43.9%
56.1%
+133
-140
+140
-145
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+141
4.06
4.71
8.77
o8-110
u8+102
o8½+100
u8½-120
Overall Bet Value Active
St. Louis Cardinals (13-14)
Detroit Tigers (15-12)
Steven Matz
Kenta Maeda
48.8%
51.2%
-108
+100
-107
+100
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+150
+1½-170
4.52
4.65
9.17
o8½+100
u8½-113
o8½+105
u8½-115
Kansas City Royals (17-11)
Toronto Blue Jays (13-15)
Jonathan Bowlan
Yariel Rodríguez
42.3%
57.7%
+126
-136
+133
-140
+1½-160
-1½+142
+1½-155
-1½+140
3.63
4.43
8.06
o8½-118
u8½+102
o9+105
u8½+105
Chicago Cubs (17-10)
New York Mets (13-13)
Jameson Taillon
Luis Severino
47.2%
52.8%
+117
-127
+113
-122
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+170
4.34
4.64
8.98
o8-105
u8-115
o8-105
u8-115
Minnesota Twins (13-13)
Chicago White Sox (5-22)
Joe Ryan
Garrett Crochet
67.5%
32.5%
-156
+145
-160
+151
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-125
4.79
2.99
7.78
o7½-103
u7½-110
o7-125
u7+105
Tampa Bay Rays (13-15)
Milwaukee Brewers (17-9)
Ryan Pepiot
Bryse Wilson
41.5%
58.5%
+102
-110
+101
-109
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-205
-1½+181
4.14
5.04
9.18
o8½-105
u8½-103
o8½-110
u8½-105
Philadelphia Phillies (18-10)
Los Angeles Angels (10-17)
Cristopher Sánchez
Griffin Canning
56.8%
43.2%
-133
+126
-137
+130
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-130
4.71
3.99
8.70
o9+102
u9-118
o8½-125
u8½+105
Los Angeles Dodgers (18-11)
Arizona Diamondbacks (12-16)
James Paxton
Tommy Henry
63.2%
36.8%
-139
+129
-142
+133
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-125
5.36
3.98
9.34
o10-108
u10+100
o10+100
u10-110
Cincinnati Reds (15-12)
San Diego Padres (14-16)
Nick Lodolo
Matt Waldron
46.4%
53.6%
-105
-104
-105
+100
+1½-225
-1½+195

4.48
4.85
9.33
o8-105
u8-108
o8-105
u8+100
Atlanta Braves (18-7)
Seattle Mariners (15-12)
Max Fried
Bryce Miller
55.5%
44.5%
-144
+135
-145
+137
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+120
+1½-135
4.67
4.09
8.76
o7½+100
u7½-110
o7½+100
u7½-120
Pittsburgh Pirates (14-14)
Oakland Athletics (11-17)
Bailey Falter
Joe Boyle
50.5%
49.5%
-126
+120
-128
+120
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
4.09
4.04
8.13
o8-113
u8-103
o8-110
u8+100
Games for Apr 28, 2024
Games for Apr 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chicago Cubs
Boston Red Sox
46.0%
54.0%
+136
-143
+135
-140
+1½-153
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
4
5
-0.54235-0.54782-0.61567
Arizona Diamondbacks
Seattle Mariners
40.1%
59.9%
+124
-130
+125
-126
+1½-180
-1½+162
+1½-180
-1½+176
3
2
-0.81805-0.81290-0.91262
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
45.1%
54.9%
+131
-138
+138
-148
+1½-158
-1½+145
+1½-153
-1½+140
8
6
-0.84989-0.88390-0.79724
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels
54.2%
45.8%
-102
-105
-104
-105
-1½+155
+1½-168
-1½+160
+1½-175
11
5
-0.70029-0.69549-0.61201
Houston Astros
Colorado Rockies
70.6%
29.4%
-225
+215
-230
+220
-1½-165
+1½+160
-1½-165
+1½+160
8
2
-0.37745-0.37044-0.34743
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
47.0%
53.0%
-103
-103
-104
-105


2
3
-0.69315-0.69081-0.63565
Cincinnati Reds
Texas Rangers
43.5%
56.5%
+121
-128
+122
-128
+1½-168
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+160
3
4
-0.59111-0.58909-0.57049
New York Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers
47.7%
52.3%
-131
+123
-130
+127
-1½+125
+1½-138
-1½+120
+1½-137
15
5
-0.58263-0.57627-0.74127
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox
59.2%
40.8%
-135
+125
-134
+130
-1½+122
+1½-130
-1½+120
+1½-130
2
4
-0.82968-0.84033-0.89740
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
41.8%
58.2%
+154
-160
+160
-169
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-140
-1½+135
1
4
-0.49456-0.47760-0.54087
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets
40.8%
59.2%
+131
-135
+131
-135
+1½-173
-1½+165
+1½-175
-1½+160
2
4
-0.56165-0.56165-0.52465
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
40.8%
59.2%
+122
-130
+124
-131
+1½-163
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+154
12
9
-0.81306-0.81991-0.89715
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
49.9%
50.1%
-101
-107
+102
-108
+1½-207
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
1
3
-0.67911-0.66959-0.69211
Cleveland Guardians
Atlanta Braves
36.6%
63.4%
+139
-148
+146
-141
+1½-143
-1½+127
+1½-145
-1½+141
3
4
-0.53128-0.52756-0.45575
Oakland Athletics
Baltimore Orioles
36.4%
63.6%
+182
-187
+180
-190
+1½-113
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+105
7
6
-1.04290-1.04185-1.00923
Arizona Diamondbacks
Seattle Mariners
42.3%
57.7%
+135
-141
+139
-144
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-155
-1½+151
1
3
-0.54657-0.53589-0.54998
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks158-6 (0.567)1-0.67381 
Sportsbooks159-6 (0.600)0-0.67368 
DRatings159-6 (0.600)0-0.68330
-0.00949
-0.00962

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.