MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 14, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedToronto Blue Jays (19-22)
Baltimore Orioles (26-14)
Chris Bassitt
Kyle Bradish
39.6%
60.4%
+147
-157
+153
-163
+1½-143
-1½+127
+1½-140
-1½+130
3.42
4.51
7.93
o8-103
u8-110
o8-105
u8-110
St. Louis Cardinals (17-24)
Los Angeles Angels (15-27)
Sonny Gray
Reid Detmers
56.9%
43.1%
-137
+128
-138
+130
-1½+122
+1½-138
-1½+125
+1½-140
4.00
3.28
7.28
o7-119
u7+107
o7½+105
u7½-115
Cincinnati Reds (17-24)
Arizona Diamondbacks (20-22)
Hunter Greene
Slade Cecconi
45.7%
54.3%
+101
-110
+105
-107
+1½-195
-1½+178
+1½-195
-1½+180
3.81
4.27
8.08
o8½-113
u8½-102
o8½-110
u8½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Colorado Rockies (13-28)
San Diego Padres (22-22)
Cal Quantrill
Dylan Cease
29.3%
70.7%
+245
-273
+270
-290
+1½+112
-1½-128
+1½+120
-1½-130
2.87
4.99
7.86
o7-105
u7-108
o7-110
u7-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Kansas City Royals (25-18)
Seattle Mariners (23-19)
Michael Wacha
Logan Gilbert
38.6%
61.4%
+149
-154
+146
-151
+1½-155
-1½+142
+1½-155
-1½+141
3.09
4.29
7.38
o7-123
u7½-117
o7-120
u7½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Dodgers (28-15)
San Francisco Giants (19-24)
Gavin Stone
Keaton Winn
58.6%
41.4%
-171
+161
-175
+170
-1½-110
+1½+100
-1½-120
+1½+105
4.90
3.99
8.89
o8½-103
u8½-113
o8½+100
u8+100
All Bet Values Active
Games for May 13, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Tampa Bay Rays (21-21)
Boston Red Sox (21-20)
48.5%
51.5%
+112
-119
+110
-115
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
10.26
o9½+100
u9½-112
o9-115
u9+105
9th
TOP
3
3
Chicago Cubs (24-18)
Atlanta Braves (25-13)
34.5%
65.5%
+180
-188
+176
-180
+1½-130
-1½+132
+1½-125
-1½+115
8.49
o8+103
u7½+102
o8+100
u8-115
8th
BOT
0
7
Pittsburgh Pirates (19-23)
Milwaukee Brewers (24-17)
37.2%
62.8%
+144
-150
+145
-150
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+133
9.05
o8-113
u8+102
o8½+100
u8½-110
7th
TOP
2
4
New York Yankees (27-15)
Minnesota Twins (24-16)
53.3%
46.7%
-106
+101
-106
+107
-1½+150
+1½-158
-1½+150
+1½-155
8.60
o8½+100
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-110
6th
TOP
5
1
Cleveland Guardians (26-16)
Texas Rangers (22-21)
52.1%
47.9%
+112
-117
+110
-117
+1½-183
-1½+170

8.59
o9-118
u9½-120
o9-120
u9+105
4th
TOP
6
2
Washington Nationals (19-20)
Chicago White Sox (12-29)
47.2%
52.8%
-107
+102
-105
+101
-1½+152
+1½-165

7.77
o7½+102
u8-115
o7½+110
u7½-115
6th
BOT
0
3
Oakland Athletics (19-24)
Houston Astros (16-25)
36.9%
63.1%
+165
-175
+170
-177
+1½-125
-1½+115
+1½-125
-1½+115
7.26
o8½-115
u8½+105
o8½-120
u9-120
4th
TOP
0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
54.0%
46.0%
-101
-105
+100
-105

-1½+155
+1½-170
3
4
-0.68363-0.68116-0.77701
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
32.4%
67.6%
+188
-200
+200
-208
+1½-112
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+100
4
8
-0.41925-0.40118-0.39128
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
56.3%
43.7%
+102
-111
+105
-107

-1½+165
+1½-175
0
4
-0.66322-0.66458-0.82720
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
59.2%
40.8%
+100
-107
+100
-103

-1½+160
+1½-170
4
2
-0.70991-0.70051-0.52349
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
49.9%
50.1%
+107
-114
+110
-112
+1½-197
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+186
5
6
-0.64546-0.64257-0.69137
Texas Rangers
Colorado Rockies
57.8%
42.2%
-138
+130
-140
+136
-1½+105
+1½-118
-1½+104
+1½-120
1
3
-0.84742-0.86569-0.86348
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox
63.0%
37.0%
-159
+152
-164
+152
-1½+100
+1½-105
-1½-105
+1½-110
7
0
-0.49860-0.49397-0.46259
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
36.2%
63.8%
+140
-146
+142
-146
+1½-140
-1½+131
+1½-145
-1½+132
4
3
-0.88557-0.89048-1.01526
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
56.9%
43.1%
-138
+133
-137
+133
-1½+113
+1½-128
-1½+115
+1½-125
10
6
-0.55399-0.55530-0.56461
Houston Astros
Detroit Tigers
53.3%
46.7%
+101
-107
+102
-109
+1½-200
-1½+186

9
3
-0.71245-0.71953-0.62871
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
60.9%
39.1%
-195
+182
-187
+180
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-115
+1½+110
6
7
-1.05225-1.03829-0.93843
Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays
56.6%
43.4%
-112
+106
-115
+106
-1½+140
+1½-154
-1½+142
+1½-155
5
1
-0.65174-0.64582-0.56838
Washington Nationals
Boston Red Sox
45.2%
54.8%
+120
-129
+122
-130
+1½-170
-1½+156
+1½-170
-1½+160
2
3
-0.59162-0.58609-0.60185
Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
45.4%
54.6%
+110
-118
+114
-120
+1½-188
-1½+175
+1½-185
-1½+175
9
2
-0.75927-0.77347-0.78876
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
47.8%
52.2%
-113
+104
-110
+107
-1½+142
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-150
5
4
-0.65441-0.65350-0.73802
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
34.2%
65.8%
+205
-216
+205
-220
+1½-105
-1½-111
+1½+100
-1½-105
8
1
-1.12649-1.13038-1.07163
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks86-2 (0.750)0-0.68757 
Sportsbooks86-2 (0.750)0-0.68546 
DRatings86-2 (0.750)0-0.68936
-0.00178
-0.00390

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.