German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 3, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim 		44.0%
31.4%		24.7%
-175
+440

1.57
1.29		2.86
o3½-129
u3¾-116

Games for May 2, 2024
Games for May 4, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
FC Heidenheim
Darmstadt 98		23.8%
53.1%		23.1%
+118
+229
+118
+220
1
0		-0.80824-0.82351-1.43418
FC Koln
Mainz 05		24.7%
52.4%		22.9%
+490
-170
+490
-177
1
1		-1.50765-1.49884-1.47338
Union Berlin
Borussia Monchengladbach		24.3%
52.4%		23.3%
+186
+160
+188
+150
0
0		-1.27257-1.26429-1.45856
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		12.8%
70.3%		16.9%
+316
-118
+310
-120
2
2		-1.43624-1.41535-1.77537
Wolfsburg
Freiburg		17.0%
62.5%		20.5%
+225
+132
+215
+125
2
1		-1.19885-1.18633-1.77237
Werder Bremen
Augsburg		25.0%
51.8%		23.1%
+370
-139
+353
-125
3
0		-1.56791-1.52225-1.38466
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayern Munich		7.1%
81.3%		11.6%
+560
-218
+535
-230
1
2		-0.40366-0.39988-0.20689
Dortmund
RB Leipzig		22.4%
56.0%		21.6%
+430
-175
+420
-150
1
4		-0.48070-0.51146-0.58014
Hoffenheim
VfL Bochum		41.0%
33.9%		25.0%
+217
+115
+200
+115
2
3		-0.79200-0.81159-1.08134
Mainz 05
Freiburg		20.1%
58.2%		21.7%
+145
+203
+140
+192
1
1		-1.28663-1.28620-1.52661
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Dortmund		31.3%
44.5%		24.2%
+164
+170
+156
+165
1
1		-1.31763-1.31543-1.42014
VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen		33.4%
41.4%		25.2%
-135
+354
-155
+383
1
2		-1.53726-1.61863-0.88145
Bayern Munich
Union Berlin		60.0%
18.8%		21.2%
-141
+400
-150
+400
5
1		-0.55673-0.54550-0.51001
RB Leipzig
FC Heidenheim		62.7%
17.0%		20.3%
-222
+560
-235
+537
2
1		-0.40109-0.39894-0.46735
Darmstadt 98
FC Koln		17.9%
62.4%		19.7%
+625
-215
+610
-210
2
0		-2.00649-1.98843-1.72221
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hoffenheim		31.4%
44.6%		23.9%
+226
+131
+205
+128
3
4		-0.82189-0.85003-0.80735
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.19615 
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.19555 
DRatings30-1-2 (0.333)0-1.45537
-0.25922
-0.25983

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/21/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen (25-0-5, 80 pts)27.00.96.187.1100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Bayern Munich (21-6-3, 66 pts)23.46.73.974.10.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3VfB Stuttgart (20-7-3, 63 pts)21.18.84.067.40.0%92.5%7.5%0.0%0.0%
4RB Leipzig (18-7-5, 59 pts)19.88.16.165.60.0%76.8%23.2%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (16-5-9, 57 pts)17.86.110.263.50.0%30.7%69.3%0.0%0.0%
6Eintracht Frankfurt (11-7-12, 45 pts)12.08.913.149.20.0%0.0%78.4%0.0%0.0%
7Freiburg (11-12-7, 40 pts)12.713.28.246.10.0%0.0%13.7%0.0%0.0%
8Augsburg (10-11-9, 39 pts)11.112.710.143.50.0%0.0%4.2%0.0%0.0%
9Hoffenheim (11-13-6, 39 pts)12.414.67.044.10.0%0.0%3.7%0.0%0.0%
10FC Heidenheim (8-12-10, 34 pts)9.113.811.138.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Werder Bremen (9-14-7, 34 pts)10.215.78.138.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Borussia Monchengladbach (7-13-10, 31 pts)8.614.311.137.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%
13Wolfsburg (8-15-7, 31 pts)9.116.78.235.60.0%0.0%0.0%2.7%0.2%
14Union Berlin (8-17-5, 29 pts)9.518.36.234.80.0%0.0%0.0%12.0%1.7%
15Mainz 05 (5-13-12, 27 pts)6.514.413.132.70.0%0.0%0.0%20.4%4.2%
16VfL Bochum (5-13-12, 27 pts)6.014.913.131.20.0%0.0%0.0%49.0%15.2%
17FC Koln (4-16-10, 22 pts)5.417.411.127.40.0%0.0%0.0%15.0%78.7%
18Darmstadt 98 (3-19-8, 17 pts)4.220.69.221.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.