Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Willem II
Utrecht 		18.0%
60.8%		21.1%
+495
-176
+450
-170
1.00
2.00		3.00
o2½-132
u2¾-113

Sparta Rotterdam
RKC Waalwijk 		30.5%
42.9%		26.5%
+102
+269
+105
+245
1.13
1.40		2.53
o2½-138
u2¾-109

Ajax
Go Ahead Eagles 		61.4%
17.5%		21.0%
-121
+319
-130
+325
2.01
0.97		2.98
o2¾-118
u3-129

Heracles Almelo
NEC Nijmegen 		17.2%
60.8%		22.0%
+415
-154
+425
-170
0.88
1.89		2.77
o2¾-113
u3-131

Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
AZ Alkmaar
Zwolle		58.4%
19.5%		22.1%
-217
+555
-260
+625
2
1		-0.41671-0.37656-0.53828
Fortuna Sittard
Ajax		8.4%
77.6%		14.0%
+882
-303
+900
-325
0
5		-0.32335-0.31859-0.25418
Heerenveen
Twente		12.9%
68.7%		18.4%
+763
-312
+725
-320
0
2		-0.31444-0.32052-0.37532
Almere City
Heracles Almelo		28.0%
44.7%		27.2%
+215
+132
+220
+125
0
0		-1.27809-1.27357-1.30192
RKC Waalwijk
Willem II		26.6%
48.2%		25.1%
+320
-112
+320
-120
0
3		-0.67201-0.65514-0.72962
Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam		24.5%
50.9%		24.6%
+270
+104
+240
+110
2
1		-1.34738-1.27447-1.40589
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar		16.2%
63.4%		20.4%
+677
-253
+680
-260
1
9		-0.37011-0.37462-0.45621
Fortuna Sittard
NAC Breda		49.5%
27.5%		22.9%
+139
+202
+130
+200
0
1		-1.14388-1.14721-1.29004
Feyenoord
Groningen		69.4%
12.4%		18.2%
-133
+371
-165
+420
2
2		-1.42833-1.49593-1.70479
NEC Nijmegen
PSV Eindhoven		5.2%
84.2%		10.6%
+1400
-574
+1400
-650
0
2		-0.19592-0.19283-0.17220
Zwolle
Twente		6.4%
81.1%		12.5%
+850
-322
+875
-340
1
1		-1.82753-1.78260-2.08200
Go Ahead Eagles
PSV Eindhoven		4.6%
86.1%		9.4%
+1800
-788
+1850
-900
0
3		-0.15683-0.15537-0.14990
Twente
Utrecht		46.4%
28.2%		25.3%
+152
+184
+140
+190
1
2		-1.07397-1.11480-1.26461
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II		30.8%
42.6%		26.6%
+137
+207
+135
+195
2
1		-0.89892-0.90342-1.17769
NAC Breda
Heerenveen		7.0%
81.4%		11.6%
+390
-144
+365
-145
0
4		-0.55647-0.57407-0.20573
NEC Nijmegen
Fortuna Sittard		25.8%
49.2%		25.0%
+227
+125
+225
+120
3
0		-1.21244-1.22946-1.35580
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.41671 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.37656 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.53828
-0.12157
-0.16172

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.