Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 14, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mallorca
Osasuna 		19.7%
55.2%		25.1%
+192
+180
+190
+175
0.85
1.59		2.44
o1¾-122
u2-130
o2+120
u2-135
Alaves
Real Madrid 		4.1%
85.4%		10.5%
+1244
-418
+1100
-400
0.50
2.86		3.36
o3-118
u3+105
o3-120
u3+100
Villarreal
Girona 		30.8%
42.1%		27.1%
+340
-137
+330
-140
1.11
1.34		2.45
o3½-108
u3½-108
o3½-105
u3½-105
Games for May 13, 2024
Games for May 15, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Barcelona
Girona		59.5%
17.8%		22.7%
+138
+192
+140
+182
2
4		-1.09703-1.07061-1.72513
Cadiz
Real Madrid		3.4%
87.3%		9.4%
+885
-265
+800
-290
0
3		-0.34735-0.34579-0.13614
Las Palmas
Real Sociedad		11.9%
68.4%		19.6%
+1025
-294
+875
-295
0
2		-0.31979-0.34013-0.37961
Athletic Club
Getafe		42.2%
28.0%		29.8%
+118
+288
+110
+290
2
0		-0.80786-0.78794-0.86325
Valencia
Barcelona		8.9%
75.5%		15.6%
+835
-287
+825
-305
2
4		-0.31682-0.32569-0.28124
Sevilla
Betis		25.2%
48.8%		26.0%
+315
+105
+290
+103
1
1		-1.26302-1.26603-1.34604
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal		17.7%
60.4%		21.9%
+362
-120
+346
-125
0
3		-0.62755-0.62982-0.50428
Osasuna
Granada		28.7%
43.9%		27.4%
+249
+142
+240
+150
0
3		-0.90587-0.93805-0.82260
Mallorca
Cadiz		28.7%
41.6%		29.7%
+214
+186
+218
+170
1
1		-1.06613-1.08240-1.21396
Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid		18.6%
56.7%		24.7%
+321
-102
+315
-110
1
3		-0.70336-0.69433-0.56697
Celta Vigo
Alaves		32.7%
38.1%		29.2%
+200
+170
+190
+170
0
3		-1.01418-1.03541-0.96469
Getafe
Almeria		32.6%
37.5%		29.9%
+196
+160
+187
+170
3
1		-1.11398-1.07590-1.12061
Girona
Las Palmas		32.8%
37.8%		29.4%
-143
+423
-130
+390
2
0		-0.55236-0.58783-1.11474
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad		55.0%
20.7%		24.3%
+233
+144
+222
+140
1
0		-1.21878-1.20835-0.59796
Mallorca
Sevilla		14.9%
62.7%		22.4%
+325
+112
+325
+110
1
2		-0.77072-0.77542-0.46695
Barcelona
Real Madrid		19.2%
57.9%		22.9%
+335
-134
+340
-138
2
3		-0.58438-0.57882-0.54626
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.57220 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.58152 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.38443
0.18777
0.19709

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/06/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (27-1-6, 87 pts)29.61.66.895.6100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Girona (23-6-5, 74 pts)24.47.56.179.40.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Barcelona (22-5-7, 73 pts)24.35.87.980.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (21-9-4, 67 pts)23.19.95.174.30.0%94.3%5.7%0.0%
5Athletic Club (17-7-10, 61 pts)18.98.011.067.80.0%5.7%94.3%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (14-8-12, 54 pts)15.39.513.259.10.0%0.0%70.7%0.0%
7Betis (13-8-13, 52 pts)14.49.514.157.30.0%0.0%27.7%0.0%
8Valencia (13-13-8, 47 pts)14.414.39.252.50.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%
9Villarreal (12-13-9, 45 pts)13.414.610.050.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Getafe (10-11-13, 43 pts)11.512.514.048.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sevilla (10-13-11, 41 pts)11.414.612.146.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Alaves (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.116.99.145.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Osasuna (11-17-6, 39 pts)12.118.77.143.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Las Palmas (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.318.68.142.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Celta Vigo (8-16-10, 34 pts)9.217.711.138.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%
16Rayo Vallecano (7-14-13, 34 pts)8.015.914.138.20.0%0.0%0.0%1.3%
17Mallorca (6-14-14, 32 pts)7.315.515.237.10.0%0.0%0.0%2.0%
18Cadiz (4-16-14, 26 pts)5.217.715.230.70.0%0.0%0.0%96.4%
19Granada (4-21-9, 21 pts)5.222.810.025.60.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Almeria (2-21-11, 17 pts)3.222.812.121.60.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.