France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 3, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Nice 		22.1%
53.4%		24.5%
+232
+124

0.97
1.65		2.62
o2½+100
u2½-112

Games for Jan 2, 2025
Games for Jan 4, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco		47.4%
27.6%		24.9%
-125
+331
-130
+325
4
2		-0.62168-0.61982-0.74585
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		9.9%
74.5%		15.6%
+700
-260
+690
-300
1
3		-0.34783-0.33694-0.29397
Angers
Rennes		13.6%
67.3%		19.1%
+530
-162
+500
-170
0
2		-0.50745-0.51089-0.39622
Strasbourg
Le Havre		39.1%
31.7%		29.2%
+130
+248
+130
+235
3
0		-0.86230-0.88242-0.93964
Nantes
Brest		26.7%
47.3%		26.0%
+260
+130
+225
+145
1
4		-0.85767-0.94410-0.74862
Nice
Montpellier		40.8%
31.8%		27.4%
+140
+194
+130
+200
2
2		-1.35476-1.30523-1.29631
Monaco
Reims		50.0%
24.8%		25.1%
+126
+240
+100
+265
0
0		-1.27482-1.33139-1.38035
Lens
Auxerre		51.2%
23.9%		24.9%
-126
+387
-130
+365
2
2		-1.38007-1.35763-1.39022
Lille
Marseille		29.1%
43.9%		27.0%
+277
+110
+245
+115
1
1		-1.28978-1.27168-1.30978
Saint-Etienne
Toulouse		15.6%
64.5%		19.9%
+815
-234
+800
-275
1
2		-0.36566-0.36159-0.43868
Marseille
Saint-Etienne		48.8%
26.1%		25.1%
-172
+495
-185
+600
2
0		-0.49076-0.44870-0.71674
Rennes
Nantes		32.2%
40.2%		27.6%
+148
+235
+130
+240
0
1		-1.23299-1.27397-0.91193
Reims
Strasbourg		21.4%
54.0%		24.6%
+194
+150
+175
+155
0
0		-1.26791-1.28302-1.40060
Montpellier
Lens		16.1%
63.4%		20.5%
+750
-243
+680
-250
0
2		-0.37044-0.38604-0.45596
Lyon
Angers		51.6%
24.2%		24.2%
-158
+425
-160
+420
3
0		-0.52520-0.53582-0.66144
Le Havre
Nice		15.0%
62.4%		22.6%
+530
-162
+515
-170
1
2		-0.50149-0.51330-0.47185
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 12/23/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (12-0-4, 40 pts)23.32.97.877.697.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Marseille (9-3-3, 30 pts)17.28.48.360.10.9%58.2%28.5%0.0%
3Monaco (9-4-3, 30 pts)17.48.87.859.90.5%54.2%30.4%0.0%
4Lille (7-2-6, 27 pts)15.87.111.158.40.5%45.1%37.3%0.0%
5Lyon (7-4-4, 25 pts)14.99.89.354.10.1%17.2%33.7%0.0%
6Nice (6-3-6, 24 pts)13.59.111.551.80.1%10.0%26.6%0.0%
7Lens (6-3-6, 24 pts)13.88.811.452.90.1%12.8%27.2%0.0%
8Toulouse (6-6-3, 21 pts)12.613.08.346.30.0%0.9%6.7%0.2%
9Auxerre (6-6-3, 21 pts)10.815.28.140.40.0%0.0%1.0%4.5%
10Reims (5-5-5, 20 pts)10.613.010.442.30.0%0.3%1.8%1.5%
11Brest (6-8-1, 19 pts)12.415.36.343.50.0%0.4%2.3%1.8%
12Rennes (5-8-2, 17 pts)11.914.77.443.20.0%0.5%2.0%1.2%
13Strasbourg (4-6-5, 17 pts)10.912.810.342.90.0%0.4%2.1%1.8%
14Nantes (3-7-5, 14 pts)9.214.510.337.90.0%0.0%0.3%9.8%
15Angers (3-8-4, 13 pts)7.917.19.132.60.0%0.0%0.0%37.9%
16Saint-Etienne (4-10-1, 13 pts)8.819.26.032.40.0%0.0%0.0%44.5%
17Le Havre (4-11-0, 12 pts)8.920.05.131.70.0%0.0%0.1%49.3%
18Montpellier (2-10-3, 9 pts)7.817.88.431.70.0%0.0%0.0%47.5%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.