Athletico Paranaense at Gremio

Updated 401 days ago

10:00 PM • Oct 18, 2023

Athletico Paranaense

23.7%26.9%49.4%

Athletico Paranaense WinDrawGremio Win

0.90Projected Goals 1.43

2Final Score 1

Gremio

Last 5 Games

Athletico Paranaense		Money Line
T 1-1	10/08 vs Bragantino
L 0-2	10/01 at Coritiba
W 1-2	9/21 vs Internacional
W 3-0	9/14 at Flamengo
T 1-1	9/02 vs Atletico Mineiro

Gremio		Money Line
L 2-3	10/08 at Internacional
T 1-1	9/30 at Fortaleza
W 0-1	9/22 vs Palmeiras
T 4-4	9/19 at Corinthians
L 0-2	9/15 at Bragantino

Money Line Analysis

:3.4%

	Open Line	Heritage	Bovada	BetOnline	YouWager	SportsBetting	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Athletico Paranaense	+295	-	+280	+290	+290	+290	+290	+309.5
Gremio	-105	-	+110	+105	+105	+105	+110	+115.3
Draw	+245	-	+230	+227	+227	+227	+230	+243.4

	South Point	Circa	Caesars	Stations	Westgate	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Athletico Paranaense	-	-	-	-	-	+309.5
Gremio	-	-	-	-	-	+115.3
Draw	-	-	-	-	-	+243.4

Overall

Bet Value Inactive

Athletico Paranaense: 0.0%

Bet Value Inactive

Gremio: 10.0%

Base Rating
Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.
More on Base Rating

Athletico Paranaense: 0.0%

Gremio: 20.0%

Bet Trends
Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.
More on Bet Trends

Athletico Paranaense: 10.0%

Gremio: 0.0%

Sharp Line
Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.
More on Sharp Line

Athletico Paranaense: 0.0%

Gremio: 0.0%

Latest ML
Steam Move
A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.
More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Athletico Paranaense ML

No Steam Moves On Gremio ML

Over/Under Analysis

:3.3%

	Open Line	Heritage	Bovada	BetOnline	YouWager	SportsBetting	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Over	o2¼-118	-	o2¼-106	o2¼-110	o2¼-110	o2¼-110	o2¼-106	o2¼+100
Under	u2¼-102	-	u2¼-108	u2¼-110	u2¼-110	u2¼-110	u2¼-108	u2¼+100

	Open Line	South Point	Circa	Caesars	Stations	Westgate	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Over		-	-	-	-	-		o2¼+100
Under		-	-	-	-	-		u2¼+100

Overall

Bet Value Inactive

Over: 0.0%

Bet Value Inactive

Under: 0.0%

Base Rating
Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.
More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%

Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends
Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.
More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Under: 0.0%

Sharp Line
Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.
More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%

Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U
Steam Move
A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.
More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over

No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes	45.1%


No	54.9%

Total Goals

Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 0	9.74%
Exactly 2	26.41%
Exactly 4	11.94%
Exactly 6	2.16%
Exactly 8	0.21%


Exactly 1	22.68%
Exactly 3	20.51%
Exactly 5	5.56%
Exactly 7	0.72%

Exact Goals Scored - Athletico Paranaense
Exactly 0	40.66%
Exactly 1	36.59%
Exactly 2	16.46%
Exactly 3	4.94%
Exactly 4	1.11%
Exactly 5	0.20%

Exact Goals Scored - Gremio
Exactly 0	23.95%
Exactly 1	34.23%
Exactly 2	24.46%
Exactly 3	11.65%
Exactly 4	4.16%
Exactly 5	1.19%
Exactly 6	0.28%

Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 0	34.02%
Exactly 2	19.78%
Exactly 4	1.92%


Exactly 1	36.68%
Exactly 3	7.11%
Exactly 5	0.41%

Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Athletico Paranaense
Exactly 0	65.93%
Exactly 1	27.47%
Exactly 2	5.72%
Exactly 3	0.79%

Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Gremio
Exactly 0	51.60%
Exactly 1	34.14%
Exactly 2	11.29%
Exactly 3	2.49%
Exactly 4	0.41%

Alternate Props

Spread

Athletico Paranaense
Wins by 2+ goals	7.92%
Wins by 3+ goals	1.99%
Wins by 4+ goals	0.38%

Gremio
Wins by 2+ goals	24.30%
Wins by 3+ goals	9.35%
Wins by 4+ goals	2.88%
Wins by 5+ goals	0.70%
Wins by 6+ goals	0.12%

Exact Winning Margin

Athletico Paranaense

Gremio

Athletico Paranaense
Wins by 1 goal	15.75%
Wins by 2 goals	5.93%
Wins by 3 goals	1.61%
Wins by 4 goals	0.33%

Gremio
Wins by 1 goal	25.01%
Wins by 2 goals	14.96%
Wins by 3 goals	6.47%
Wins by 4 goals	2.17%
Wins by 5 goals	0.59%
Wins by 6 goals	0.12%

Total Goals Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	90.26%	9.74%
1.5	67.57%	32.43%
2.5	41.16%	58.84%
3.5	20.65%	79.35%
4.5	8.72%	91.28%
5.5	3.16%	96.84%

Total Goals Athletico Paranaense Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	59.34%	40.66%
1.5	22.75%	77.25%
2.5	6.28%	93.72%
3.5	1.35%	98.65%

Total Goals Gremio Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	76.05%	23.95%
1.5	41.81%	58.19%
2.5	17.36%	82.64%
3.5	5.70%	94.30%
4.5	1.54%	98.46%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	65.98%	34.02%
1.5	29.30%	70.70%
2.5	9.52%	90.48%
3.5	2.42%	97.58%

Score Props

Correct Score

Athletico Paranaense

Gremio

Score	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9.74%	13.92%	9.95%	4.74%	1.69%	0.48%
1	8.77%	12.53%	8.95%	4.26%	1.52%	0.44%
2	3.94%	5.64%	4.03%	1.92%	0.69%	0.20%
3	1.18%	1.69%	1.21%	0.58%	0.21%	0.06%
4	0.27%	0.38%	0.27%	0.13%	0.05%	0.01%

Athletico Paranaense
1-0	8.77%
2-0	3.94%
2-1	5.64%
3-0	1.18%
3-1	1.69%
3-2	1.21%
4-0	0.27%
4-1	0.38%
4-2	0.27%
4-3	0.13%

Draw
0-0	9.74%
1-1	12.53%
2-2	4.03%
3-3	0.58%

Gremio
0-1	13.92%
0-2	9.95%
1-2	8.95%
0-3	4.74%
1-3	4.26%
2-3	1.92%
0-4	1.69%
1-4	1.52%
2-4	0.69%
3-4	0.21%
0-5	0.48%
1-5	0.44%
2-5	0.20%

Correct Score - First Half

Athletico Paranaense

Gremio

Score	0	1	2	3	4
0	34.02%	22.51%	7.45%	1.64%	0.27%
1	14.17%	9.38%	3.10%	0.68%	0.11%
2	2.95%	1.95%	0.65%	0.14%	0.02%
3	0.41%	0.27%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%

Athletico Paranaense
1-0	14.17%
2-0	2.95%
2-1	1.95%
3-0	0.41%
3-1	0.27%

Draw
0-0	34.02%
1-1	9.38%
2-2	0.65%

Gremio
0-1	22.51%
0-2	7.45%
1-2	3.10%
0-3	1.64%
1-3	0.68%
2-3	0.14%
0-4	0.27%
1-4	0.11%

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