Derby County at Swansea City

Updated

Derby County

18.3%23.6%58.1%
WinDrawSwansea City Win
0.85Projected Goals 1.73
1Final Score 2

Swansea City

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
W 0-1 vs Preston North End+160
T 1-1 vs Coventry City+195
L 1-3 at Blackburn+420
L 0-2 at Bournemouth+505
W 0-2 vs Barnsley+105
Swansea City
Money Line
W 1-0 at Millwall+280
W 4-0 at Cardiff City+235
T 0-0 vs Birmingham City-110
W 3-2 at Peterborough United+130
L 0-1 at Blackpool+215

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.0%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+265+270+240+279+272+240+279+279.8
Swansea City+105+105+102+114+101+102+114+119.1
Draw+230+215+235+238+241+235+241+256.8
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+285---+250+270+270+279.8
Swansea City+110----110+105+105+119.1
Draw+215---+215+240+240+256.8

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 30.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +279 to +271
Swansea City ML moved from +108 to +101

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 40.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +285 to +265
No Steam Moves On Swansea City ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.3%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¼-105o2¼-110o2¼-111o2-150-o2¼-111o2-150o2¼+100
Underu2¼-115u2¼-110u2¼-109u2+135-u2¼-109u2¼-109u2¼+100
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¼+100
Under-----u2¼+100

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes47.2%
 
No52.8%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 07.59%
Exactly 225.23%
Exactly 413.98%
Exactly 63.10%
Exactly 80.37%
 
Exactly 119.57%
Exactly 321.68%
Exactly 57.21%
Exactly 71.14%
Exactly 90.11%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 042.64%
Exactly 136.35%
Exactly 215.49%
Exactly 34.40%
Exactly 40.94%
Exactly 50.16%
Exact Goals Scored - Swansea City
Exactly 017.80%
Exactly 130.72%
Exactly 226.51%
Exactly 315.25%
Exactly 46.58%
Exactly 52.27%
Exactly 60.65%
Exactly 70.16%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 030.31%
Exactly 221.60%
Exactly 42.57%
Exactly 60.12%
 
Exactly 136.18%
Exactly 38.59%
Exactly 50.61%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 067.39%
Exactly 126.60%
Exactly 25.25%
Exactly 30.69%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Swansea City
Exactly 044.97%
Exactly 135.94%
Exactly 214.36%
Exactly 33.83%
Exactly 40.76%
Exactly 50.12%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals5.74%
Wins by 3+ goals1.36%
Wins by 4+ goals0.24%
Swansea City
Wins by 2+ goals32.63%
Wins by 3+ goals14.66%
Wins by 4+ goals5.38%
Wins by 5+ goals1.64%
Wins by 6+ goals0.41%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Swansea City
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal12.55%
Wins by 2 goals4.38%
Wins by 3 goals1.11%
Wins by 4 goals0.22%
Swansea City
Wins by 1 goal25.41%
Wins by 2 goals17.98%
Wins by 3 goals9.28%
Wins by 4 goals3.74%
Wins by 5 goals1.23%
Wins by 6 goals0.34%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.592.41%7.59%
1.572.84%27.16%
2.547.62%52.38%
3.525.93%74.07%
4.511.96%88.04%
5.54.75%95.25%
6.51.65%98.35%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.557.36%42.64%
1.521.02%78.98%
2.55.52%94.48%
3.51.12%98.88%

Total Goals Swansea City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.582.20%17.80%
1.551.48%48.52%
2.524.97%75.03%
3.59.71%90.29%
4.53.13%96.87%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.569.69%30.31%
1.533.51%66.49%
2.511.92%88.08%
3.53.32%96.68%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Swansea City
Score012345
0
7.59%
13.10%
11.31%
6.50%
2.81%
0.97%
1
6.47%
11.17%
9.64%
5.54%
2.39%
0.83%
2
2.76%
4.76%
4.11%
2.36%
1.02%
0.35%
3
0.78%
1.35%
1.17%
0.67%
0.29%
0.10%
4
0.17%
0.29%
0.25%
0.14%
0.06%
0.02%
Derby County
1-06.47%
2-02.76%
2-14.76%
3-00.78%
3-11.35%
3-21.17%
4-00.17%
4-10.29%
4-20.25%
4-30.14%
Draw
0-07.59%
1-111.17%
2-24.11%
3-30.67%
Swansea City
0-113.10%
0-211.31%
1-29.64%
0-36.50%
1-35.54%
2-32.36%
0-42.81%
1-42.39%
2-41.02%
3-40.29%
0-50.97%
1-50.83%
2-50.35%
3-50.10%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Swansea City
Score01234
0
30.31%
24.22%
9.68%
2.58%
0.52%
1
11.96%
9.56%
3.82%
1.02%
0.20%
2
2.36%
1.89%
0.75%
0.20%
0.04%
3
0.31%
0.25%
0.10%
0.03%
0.01%
Derby County
1-011.96%
2-02.36%
2-11.89%
3-00.31%
3-10.25%
Draw
0-030.31%
1-19.56%
2-20.75%
Swansea City
0-124.22%
0-29.68%
1-23.82%
0-32.58%
1-31.02%
2-30.20%
0-40.52%
1-40.20%
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