Derby County at Swansea City

Updated

Derby County

23.6%22.8%53.6%
Derby County WinDrawSwansea City Win
0.79Projected Goals 1.78
1Final Score 2

Swansea City

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
L 2-1 vs Birmingham City+120
L 0-3 at Preston North End+150
L 1-2 at Blackburn+240
L 1-0 vs Norwich City+475
L 1-3 at Reading+250
Swansea City
Money Line
T 2-2 at Reading+235
L 1-0 vs Queens Park Rangers-120
T 2-2 vs Wycombe Wanderers-190
W 2-0 at Sheffield Wednesday+155
W 3-0 at Millwall+175

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.6%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.5%
 Open LineBookmakerBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+270+141+145+140+202+140+145-
Swansea City+100+215+205+198+139+198+215-
Draw+240+211+215+205+222+205+222-
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+215---+160+145+160-
Swansea City+130---+140+215+215-
Draw+230---+200+210+210-

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 50.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 40.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +155 to +145
Swansea City ML moved from +205 to +195

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 30.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 50.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 30.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 50.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +170 to +145
No Steam Moves On Swansea City ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.0%
 Open LineBookmakerBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½+115o2¼+101o2-140o2¼-104-o2¼-104o2-140-
Underu2½-140u2¼-123u2+115u2¼-116-u2¼-116u2¼-116-
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over------
Under------

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes45.3%
 
No54.7%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 07.65%
Exactly 225.27%
Exactly 413.91%
Exactly 63.06%
Exactly 80.36%
 
Exactly 119.67%
Exactly 321.65%
Exactly 57.15%
Exactly 71.13%
Exactly 90.10%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 045.55%
Exactly 135.82%
Exactly 214.09%
Exactly 33.69%
Exactly 40.73%
Exactly 50.11%
Exact Goals Scored - Swansea City
Exactly 016.80%
Exactly 129.97%
Exactly 226.73%
Exactly 315.89%
Exactly 47.09%
Exactly 52.53%
Exactly 60.75%
Exactly 70.19%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 030.42%
Exactly 221.54%
Exactly 42.54%
Exactly 60.12%
 
Exactly 136.20%
Exactly 38.55%
Exactly 50.61%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 069.48%
Exactly 125.30%
Exactly 24.61%
Exactly 30.56%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Swansea City
Exactly 043.78%
Exactly 136.16%
Exactly 214.93%
Exactly 34.11%
Exactly 40.85%
Exactly 50.14%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals4.73%
Wins by 3+ goals1.04%
Wins by 4+ goals0.18%
Swansea City
Wins by 2+ goals35.32%
Wins by 3+ goals16.36%
Wins by 4+ goals6.19%
Wins by 5+ goals1.95%
Wins by 6+ goals0.50%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Swansea City
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal11.35%
Wins by 2 goals3.68%
Wins by 3 goals0.87%
Wins by 4 goals0.16%
Swansea City
Wins by 1 goal25.74%
Wins by 2 goals18.96%
Wins by 3 goals10.16%
Wins by 4 goals4.25%
Wins by 5 goals1.45%
Wins by 6 goals0.41%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.592.35%7.65%
1.572.68%27.32%
2.547.41%52.59%
3.525.76%74.24%
4.511.84%88.16%
5.54.69%95.31%
6.51.62%98.38%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.554.45%45.55%
1.518.63%81.37%
2.54.55%95.45%

Total Goals Swansea City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.583.20%16.80%
1.553.23%46.77%
2.526.51%73.49%
3.510.61%89.39%
4.53.53%96.47%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.569.58%30.42%
1.533.38%66.62%
2.511.84%88.16%
3.53.29%96.71%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Swansea City
Score012345
0
7.65%
13.65%
12.17%
7.24%
3.23%
1.15%
1
6.02%
10.73%
9.57%
5.69%
2.54%
0.91%
2
2.37%
4.22%
3.76%
2.24%
1.00%
0.36%
3
0.62%
1.11%
0.99%
0.59%
0.26%
0.09%
4
0.12%
0.22%
0.19%
0.12%
0.05%
0.02%
Derby County
1-06.02%
2-02.37%
2-14.22%
3-00.62%
3-11.11%
3-20.99%
4-00.12%
4-10.22%
4-20.19%
4-30.12%
Draw
0-07.65%
1-110.73%
2-23.76%
3-30.59%
Swansea City
0-113.65%
0-212.17%
1-29.57%
0-37.24%
1-35.69%
2-32.24%
0-43.23%
1-42.54%
2-41.00%
3-40.26%
0-51.15%
1-50.91%
2-50.36%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Swansea City
Score01234
0
30.42%
25.13%
10.38%
2.86%
0.59%
1
11.08%
9.15%
3.78%
1.04%
0.21%
2
2.02%
1.67%
0.69%
0.19%
0.04%
3
0.24%
0.20%
0.08%
0.02%
0.00%
Derby County
1-011.08%
2-02.02%
2-11.67%
3-00.24%
3-10.20%
Draw
0-030.42%
1-19.15%
2-20.69%
Swansea City
0-125.13%
0-210.38%
1-23.78%
0-32.86%
1-31.04%
2-30.19%
0-40.59%
1-40.21%
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