Aston Villa at Southampton

Updated

Aston Villa

37.8%26.9%35.3%
Aston Villa WinDrawSouthampton Win
1.29Projected Goals 1.23
1Final Score 0

Southampton

Last 5 Games

Aston Villa
Money Line
W 1-2 vs Leeds United-102
T 1-1 vs Wolverhampton-105
W 2-0 at Tottenham+420
L 3-1 vs Liverpool+360
W 2-1 at Brighton and Hove Albion+400
Southampton
Money Line
W 2-1 at Everton+230
L 1-0 vs Nottingham Forest+130
L 1-2 at Fulham+330
L 3-1 vs Brighton and Hove Albion+245
L 1-3 at Liverpool+1020

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.0%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.0%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Aston Villa+135+184+185+192+195+192+195+201.1
Southampton+200+167+160+163+168+163+168+173.6
Draw+240+218+215+220+224+220+224+230.7
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Aston Villa+130-+174-+130+175+175+201.1
Southampton+170-+158-+170+165+165+173.6
Draw+210-+233-+210+225+233+230.7

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Southampton: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Aston Villa: 10.0%
Southampton: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Aston Villa: 10.0%
Southampton: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Aston Villa ML
Southampton ML moved from +173 to +167

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Southampton: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Aston Villa: 10.0%
Southampton: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Aston Villa: 0.0%
Southampton: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Aston Villa ML
Southampton ML moved from +166 to +158

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
-0.3%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.2%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½-105o2-145o2¼-105o2¼-102o2½+128o2¼-102o2-145o2½+134
Underu2½-115u2+123u2¼-115u2¼-114u2½-143u2¼-114u2½-143u2½-134
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½+100o2½+115o2½+123-o2½+115o2½+120o2½+123o2½+134
Underu2½-130u2½-135u2½-143-u2½-145u2½-140u2½-135u2½-134

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes51.3%
 
No48.7%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 08.05%
Exactly 225.55%
Exactly 413.51%
Exactly 62.86%
Exactly 80.32%
 
Exactly 120.28%
Exactly 321.46%
Exactly 56.81%
Exactly 71.03%
Exact Goals Scored - Aston Villa
Exactly 027.63%
Exactly 135.54%
Exactly 222.86%
Exactly 39.80%
Exactly 43.15%
Exactly 50.81%
Exactly 60.17%
Exact Goals Scored - Southampton
Exactly 029.14%
Exactly 135.93%
Exactly 222.15%
Exactly 39.10%
Exactly 42.81%
Exactly 50.69%
Exactly 60.14%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 031.15%
Exactly 221.19%
Exactly 42.40%
Exactly 60.11%
 
Exactly 136.33%
Exactly 38.24%
Exactly 50.56%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Aston Villa
Exactly 055.13%
Exactly 132.83%
Exactly 29.78%
Exactly 31.94%
Exactly 40.29%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Southampton
Exactly 056.50%
Exactly 132.26%
Exactly 29.21%
Exactly 31.75%
Exactly 40.25%

Alternate Props

Spread

Aston Villa
Wins by 2+ goals16.74%
Wins by 3+ goals5.78%
Wins by 4+ goals1.60%
Wins by 5+ goals0.35%
Southampton
Wins by 2+ goals15.09%
Wins by 3+ goals5.02%
Wins by 4+ goals1.34%
Wins by 5+ goals0.28%

Exact Winning Margin

Aston Villa
Southampton
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Aston Villa
Wins by 1 goal21.05%
Wins by 2 goals10.96%
Wins by 3 goals4.18%
Wins by 4 goals1.25%
Wins by 5 goals0.30%
Southampton
Wins by 1 goal20.18%
Wins by 2 goals10.07%
Wins by 3 goals3.69%
Wins by 4 goals1.05%
Wins by 5 goals0.24%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.95%8.05%
1.571.66%28.34%
2.546.11%53.89%
3.524.66%75.34%
4.511.14%88.86%
5.54.33%95.67%
6.51.47%98.53%

Total Goals Aston Villa Over/Under

OverUnder
0.572.37%27.63%
1.536.83%63.17%
2.513.97%86.03%
3.54.17%95.83%
4.51.02%98.98%

Total Goals Southampton Over/Under

OverUnder
0.570.86%29.14%
1.534.93%65.07%
2.512.78%87.22%
3.53.67%96.33%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.85%31.15%
1.532.52%67.48%
2.511.33%88.67%
3.53.09%96.91%

Score Props

Correct Score

Aston Villa
Southampton
Score012345
0
8.05%
9.93%
6.12%
2.52%
0.78%
0.19%
1
10.36%
12.77%
7.87%
3.24%
1.00%
0.25%
2
6.66%
8.21%
5.06%
2.08%
0.64%
0.16%
3
2.86%
3.52%
2.17%
0.89%
0.28%
0.07%
4
0.92%
1.13%
0.70%
0.29%
0.09%
0.02%
5
0.24%
0.29%
0.18%
0.07%
0.02%
0.01%
Aston Villa
1-010.36%
2-06.66%
2-18.21%
3-02.86%
3-13.52%
3-22.17%
4-00.92%
4-11.13%
4-20.70%
4-30.29%
5-00.24%
5-10.29%
5-20.18%
Draw
0-08.05%
1-112.77%
2-25.06%
3-30.89%
Southampton
0-19.93%
0-26.12%
1-27.87%
0-32.52%
1-33.24%
2-32.08%
0-40.78%
1-41.00%
2-40.64%
3-40.28%
0-50.19%
1-50.25%
2-50.16%

Correct Score - First Half

Aston Villa
Southampton
Score01234
0
31.15%
17.78%
5.08%
0.97%
0.14%
1
18.55%
10.59%
3.02%
0.58%
0.08%
2
5.52%
3.15%
0.90%
0.17%
0.02%
3
1.10%
0.63%
0.18%
0.03%
0.00%
4
0.16%
0.09%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Aston Villa
1-018.55%
2-05.52%
2-13.15%
3-01.10%
3-10.63%
3-20.18%
4-00.16%
Draw
0-031.15%
1-110.59%
2-20.90%
Southampton
0-117.78%
0-25.08%
1-23.02%
0-30.97%
1-30.58%
2-30.17%
0-40.14%