Chelsea at Aston Villa

Updated

Chelsea

38.9%27.9%33.2%
Chelsea WinDrawAston Villa Win
1.24Projected Goals 1.12
2Final Score 2

Aston Villa

Last 5 Games

Chelsea
Money Line
L 0-5 at Arsenal+675
W 0-6 vs Everton-145
T 2-2 at Sheffield United-238
W 3-4 vs Manchester United-120
T 2-2 vs Burnley-405
Aston Villa
Money Line
W 1-3 vs Bournemouth-115
W 2-0 at Arsenal+1050
T 3-3 vs Brentford-150
L 1-4 at Manchester City+1050
W 0-2 vs Wolverhampton-185

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.6%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.1%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Chelsea+180+229+210+238+241+238+241+250.0
Aston Villa+150+107+110+103+103+103+110+110.2
Draw+240+296+300+305+301+305+305+319.3
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Chelsea+191-+210+200+195+220+220+250.0
Aston Villa+118-+105+105-110+105+105+110.2
Draw+291-+313+285+280+299+313+319.3

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Chelsea: 40.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Chelsea: 40.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Chelsea: 20.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Chelsea ML moved from +227 to +217
Aston Villa ML moved from +113 to +106

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Chelsea: 30.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Chelsea: 40.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Chelsea: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Chelsea ML moved from +210 to +200
Aston Villa ML moved from +100 to -110

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
0.9%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.3%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-108o3½+107o3¼-112o3¼-114o3¼-110o3¼-114o3¼-110o3¼-105
Underu3-112u3½-127u3¼-108u3¼-102u3¼-104u3¼-102u3½-127u3¼+105
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½+115o3½-105o3½-102o3½-110o3½-110o3½+100o3½+100o3¼-105
Underu3½-135u3½-115u3½-118u3½-110u3½-120u3½-120u3½-110u3¼+105

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o3¼-110 to o3½-103
The Under moved from u3½-114 to u3¼-104

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 50.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o3½+115 to o3½-108
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes47.9%
 
No52.1%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 09.44%
Exactly 226.29%
Exactly 412.21%
Exactly 62.27%
Exactly 80.23%
 
Exactly 122.28%
Exactly 320.69%
Exactly 55.76%
Exactly 70.76%
Exact Goals Scored - Chelsea
Exactly 029.00%
Exactly 135.90%
Exactly 222.22%
Exactly 39.17%
Exactly 42.84%
Exactly 50.70%
Exactly 60.14%
Exact Goals Scored - Aston Villa
Exactly 032.54%
Exactly 136.53%
Exactly 220.51%
Exactly 37.67%
Exactly 42.15%
Exactly 50.48%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 033.53%
Exactly 220.02%
Exactly 41.99%
 
Exactly 136.64%
Exactly 37.29%
Exactly 50.44%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Chelsea
Exactly 056.38%
Exactly 132.31%
Exactly 29.26%
Exactly 31.77%
Exactly 40.25%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Aston Villa
Exactly 059.47%
Exactly 130.91%
Exactly 28.03%
Exactly 31.39%
Exactly 40.18%

Alternate Props

Spread

Chelsea
Wins by 2+ goals16.93%
Wins by 3+ goals5.71%
Wins by 4+ goals1.54%
Wins by 5+ goals0.33%
Aston Villa
Wins by 2+ goals13.27%
Wins by 3+ goals4.04%
Wins by 4+ goals0.94%
Wins by 5+ goals0.14%

Exact Winning Margin

Chelsea
Aston Villa
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Chelsea
Wins by 1 goal21.91%
Wins by 2 goals11.22%
Wins by 3 goals4.18%
Wins by 4 goals1.21%
Wins by 5 goals0.28%
Aston Villa
Wins by 1 goal19.87%
Wins by 2 goals9.22%
Wins by 3 goals3.11%
Wins by 4 goals0.80%
Wins by 5 goals0.14%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.590.56%9.44%
1.568.28%31.72%
2.541.99%58.01%
3.521.30%78.70%
4.59.10%90.90%
5.53.33%96.67%
6.51.07%98.93%

Total Goals Chelsea Over/Under

OverUnder
0.571.00%29.00%
1.535.10%64.90%
2.512.88%87.12%
3.53.71%96.29%

Total Goals Aston Villa Over/Under

OverUnder
0.567.46%32.54%
1.530.92%69.08%
2.510.42%89.58%
3.52.74%97.26%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.566.47%33.53%
1.529.84%70.16%
2.59.82%90.18%
3.52.52%97.48%

Score Props

Correct Score

Chelsea
Aston Villa
Score012345
0
9.44%
10.59%
5.95%
2.23%
0.62%
0.14%
1
11.68%
13.11%
7.36%
2.75%
0.77%
0.17%
2
7.23%
8.12%
4.56%
1.70%
0.48%
0.11%
3
2.98%
3.35%
1.88%
0.70%
0.20%
0.04%
4
0.92%
1.04%
0.58%
0.22%
0.06%
0.01%
5
0.23%
0.26%
0.14%
0.05%
0.02%
0.00%
Chelsea
1-011.68%
2-07.23%
2-18.12%
3-02.98%
3-13.35%
3-21.88%
4-00.92%
4-11.04%
4-20.58%
4-30.22%
5-00.23%
5-10.26%
5-20.14%
Draw
0-09.44%
1-113.11%
2-24.56%
3-30.70%
Aston Villa
0-110.59%
0-25.95%
1-27.36%
0-32.23%
1-32.75%
2-31.70%
0-40.62%
1-40.77%
2-40.48%
3-40.20%
0-50.14%
1-50.17%
2-50.11%

Correct Score - First Half

Chelsea
Aston Villa
Score01234
0
33.53%
17.42%
4.53%
0.78%
0.10%
1
19.21%
9.99%
2.60%
0.45%
0.06%
2
5.51%
2.86%
0.74%
0.13%
0.02%
3
1.05%
0.55%
0.14%
0.02%
0.00%
4
0.15%
0.08%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
Chelsea
1-019.21%
2-05.51%
2-12.86%
3-01.05%
3-10.55%
3-20.14%
4-00.15%
Draw
0-033.53%
1-19.99%
2-20.74%
Aston Villa
0-117.42%
0-24.53%
1-22.60%
0-30.78%
1-30.45%
2-30.13%
0-40.10%