Southampton at Aston Villa

Updated

Southampton

28.8%25.3%45.8%
Southampton WinDrawAston Villa Win
1.17Projected Goals 1.53
0Final Score 4

Aston Villa

Last 5 Games

Southampton
Money Line
W 0-2 vs Norwich City-210
W 0-2 vs Everton+111
T 1-1 at Manchester United+448
W 3-2 at Tottenham+440
T 1-1 vs Manchester City+1025
Aston Villa
Money Line
W 2-0 at Brighton and Hove Albion+250
L 1-0 vs Watford-155
L 0-1 at Newcastle United+158
T 3-3 vs Leeds United-102
W 1-0 at Everton+165

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.1%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.5%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Southampton+215+215+230+234+217+230+234+236.5
Aston Villa+130+120+125+126+121+125+126+133.7
Draw+230+235+247+258+242+247+258+263.7
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Southampton+200-+220-+185+215+220+236.5
Aston Villa+130-+122-+110+125+125+133.7
Draw+250-+245-+235+245+245+263.7

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Southampton: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Southampton: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Southampton: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Southampton ML moved from +211 to +203
Aston Villa ML moved from +130 to +121

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Southampton: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Southampton: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Southampton: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Southampton ML moved from +207 to +195
No Steam Moves On Aston Villa ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
-1.1%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
0.2%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¾-105o2¾-112o2¾-119o2½-130-o2¾-119o2½-130o2½-124
Underu2¾-115u2¾-108u2¾+103u2½+115-u2¾+103u2¾+103u2½+124
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½-120o2½-115o2½-134-o2½-125o2½-130o2½-115o2½-124
Underu2½+100u2½-105u2½+114-u2½-105u2½+110u2½+114u2½+124

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 30.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 30.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 20.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes53.9%
 
No46.1%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 06.73%
Exactly 224.51%
Exactly 414.87%
Exactly 63.61%
Exactly 80.47%
 
Exactly 118.17%
Exactly 322.04%
Exactly 58.02%
Exactly 71.39%
Exactly 90.14%
Exact Goals Scored - Southampton
Exactly 031.24%
Exactly 136.35%
Exactly 221.14%
Exactly 38.20%
Exactly 42.38%
Exactly 50.55%
Exactly 60.11%
Exact Goals Scored - Aston Villa
Exactly 021.55%
Exactly 133.08%
Exactly 225.38%
Exactly 312.98%
Exactly 44.98%
Exactly 51.53%
Exactly 60.39%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 028.67%
Exactly 222.37%
Exactly 42.91%
Exactly 60.15%
 
Exactly 135.82%
Exactly 39.32%
Exactly 50.73%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Southampton
Exactly 058.35%
Exactly 131.43%
Exactly 28.47%
Exactly 31.52%
Exactly 40.20%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Aston Villa
Exactly 049.14%
Exactly 134.91%
Exactly 212.40%
Exactly 32.94%
Exactly 40.52%

Alternate Props

Spread

Southampton
Wins by 2+ goals11.57%
Wins by 3+ goals3.61%
Wins by 4+ goals0.90%
Wins by 5+ goals0.18%
Aston Villa
Wins by 2+ goals23.00%
Wins by 3+ goals9.16%
Wins by 4+ goals2.94%
Wins by 5+ goals0.74%
Wins by 6+ goals0.12%

Exact Winning Margin

Southampton
Aston Villa
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Southampton
Wins by 1 goal17.25%
Wins by 2 goals7.95%
Wins by 3 goals2.71%
Wins by 4 goals0.72%
Wins by 5 goals0.16%
Aston Villa
Wins by 1 goal22.75%
Wins by 2 goals13.84%
Wins by 3 goals6.22%
Wins by 4 goals2.19%
Wins by 5 goals0.62%
Wins by 6 goals0.12%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.593.27%6.73%
1.575.10%24.90%
2.550.59%49.41%
3.528.55%71.45%
4.513.68%86.32%
5.55.66%94.34%
6.52.05%97.95%

Total Goals Southampton Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.76%31.24%
1.532.41%67.59%
2.511.27%88.73%
3.53.07%96.93%

Total Goals Aston Villa Over/Under

OverUnder
0.578.45%21.55%
1.545.37%54.63%
2.519.99%80.01%
3.57.01%92.99%
4.52.03%97.97%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.571.33%28.67%
1.535.51%64.49%
2.513.14%86.86%
3.53.82%96.18%

Score Props

Correct Score

Southampton
Aston Villa
Score012345
0
6.73%
10.33%
7.93%
4.06%
1.56%
0.48%
1
7.83%
12.02%
9.23%
4.72%
1.81%
0.56%
2
4.56%
6.99%
5.37%
2.75%
1.05%
0.32%
3
1.77%
2.71%
2.08%
1.06%
0.41%
0.13%
4
0.51%
0.79%
0.61%
0.31%
0.12%
0.04%
5
0.12%
0.18%
0.14%
0.07%
0.03%
0.01%
Southampton
1-07.83%
2-04.56%
2-16.99%
3-01.77%
3-12.71%
3-22.08%
4-00.51%
4-10.79%
4-20.61%
4-30.31%
5-00.12%
5-10.18%
5-20.14%
Draw
0-06.73%
1-112.02%
2-25.37%
3-31.06%
4-40.12%
Aston Villa
0-110.33%
0-27.93%
1-29.23%
0-34.06%
1-34.72%
2-32.75%
0-41.56%
1-41.81%
2-41.05%
3-40.41%
0-50.48%
1-50.56%
2-50.32%
3-50.13%

Correct Score - First Half

Southampton
Aston Villa
Score01234
0
28.67%
20.37%
7.24%
1.71%
0.30%
1
15.44%
10.97%
3.90%
0.92%
0.16%
2
4.16%
2.96%
1.05%
0.25%
0.04%
3
0.75%
0.53%
0.19%
0.04%
0.01%
4
0.10%
0.07%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Southampton
1-015.44%
2-04.16%
2-12.96%
3-00.75%
3-10.53%
3-20.19%
4-00.10%
Draw
0-028.67%
1-110.97%
2-21.05%
Aston Villa
0-120.37%
0-27.24%
1-23.90%
0-31.71%
1-30.92%
2-30.25%
0-40.30%
1-40.16%