English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Liverpool
Southampton 		73.6%
10.4%		16.0%
-287
+825
-315
+870
2.47
0.82		3.29
o3¼-112
u3½-125
o3½+110
u3½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Manchester United
Ipswich Town 		55.5%
20.7%		23.8%
-152
+420
-160
+415
1.72
0.95		2.67
o2¾-122
u3-122
o3+110
u3-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Liverpool
West Ham United		56.1%
20.8%		23.1%
-178
+430
-180
+440
2
2		-1.62501-1.62090-1.46534
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		66.9%
13.6%		19.5%
-271
+727
-297
+720
4
0		-0.33876-0.32899-0.40125
Sheffield United
Manchester United		7.4%
77.9%		14.7%
+800
-314
+750
-330
2
4		-0.30562-0.31128-0.24923
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace		32.2%
39.4%		28.3%
+127
+214
+125
+200
0
2		-1.17380-1.14907-0.93052
Liverpool
Everton		59.9%
18.2%		21.9%
-245
+670
-260
+650
0
2		-2.06609-2.06168-1.70479
Bournemouth
Wolverhampton		24.1%
49.3%		26.6%
+149
+193
+146
+175
1
0		-0.92181-0.94551-1.42358
Chelsea
Arsenal		17.8%
59.9%		22.2%
+656
-243
+675
-250
0
5		-0.37469-0.37512-0.51203
Liverpool
Fulham		62.8%
16.2%		21.0%
-145
+378
-150
+400
3
1		-0.54609-0.53524-0.46507
Bournemouth
Aston Villa		15.7%
63.5%		20.9%
+301
-116
+285
-115
1
3		-0.65041-0.66124-0.45474
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		27.3%
45.9%		26.8%
+235
+120
+227
+130
2
5		-0.81882-0.85496-0.77831
Nottingham Forest
Everton		16.5%
61.3%		22.2%
+242
+130
+260
+128
0
2		-0.86268-0.83894-0.48964
Arsenal
Wolverhampton		63.2%
15.4%		21.4%
-360
+1006
-370
+980
2
0		-0.27761-0.28336-0.45899
Brentford
Luton Town		47.5%
26.0%		26.5%
+142
+192
+137
+210
5
1		-0.91300-0.88121-0.74452
Everton
Chelsea		12.7%
68.4%		18.9%
+402
-143
+360
-145
0
6		-0.55567-0.56546-0.38025
Aston Villa
Arsenal		10.2%
73.5%		16.3%
+960
-330
+1050
-415
2
0		-2.38087-2.48795-2.28092
Fulham
West Ham United		19.4%
57.8%		22.8%
+196
+143
+190
+135
2
0		-1.10824-1.11024-1.64170
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18652 
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18702 
DRatings73-2-2 (0.571)0-1.21848
-0.03196
-0.03146

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.