English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Liverpool
Southampton 		73.6%
10.4%		16.0%
-293
+850
-325
+870
2.47
0.82		3.29
o3¼-122
u3½-116
o3½+110
u3½-125
Manchester United
Ipswich Town 		55.5%
20.7%		23.8%
-149
+420
-160
+415
1.72
0.95		2.67
o2¾-120
u3-122
o3+110
u3-130
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
Liverpool		8.3%
76.4%		15.2%
+1375
-491
+1300
-575
1
0		-2.71523-2.68619-2.48723
Manchester United
Bournemouth		46.9%
27.0%		26.2%
+184
+144
+173
+140
2
2		-1.38874-1.38206-1.34079
Luton Town
Manchester City		2.0%
91.8%		6.1%
+2500
-939
+2200
-1200
1
5		-0.11735-0.12555-0.08502
Wolverhampton
Nottingham Forest		31.3%
38.9%		29.8%
+268
+118
+270
+110
2
2		-1.27289-1.28446-1.21153
Sheffield United
Brentford		15.1%
63.2%		21.7%
+583
-211
+545
-210
0
2		-0.40680-0.41761-0.45809
Brighton and Hove Albion
Burnley		38.3%
32.8%		28.9%
-104
+294
+100
+270
1
1		-1.40735-1.36790-1.24188
Tottenham
Newcastle United		35.8%
37.1%		27.1%
+145
+169
+139
+165
0
4		-1.01542-1.01813-0.99147
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham		8.1%
77.4%		14.5%
+555
-223
+550
-240
1
3		-0.39835-0.39226-0.25614
Chelsea
Sheffield United		67.9%
12.3%		19.8%
-223
+560
-238
+575
2
2		-1.71009-1.70007-1.61984
Liverpool
Manchester United		43.0%
30.5%		26.5%
-167
+410
-170
+410
2
2		-1.60137-1.61039-1.32821
Arsenal
Brighton and Hove Albion		49.5%
25.0%		25.5%
-184
+562
-185
+550
3
0		-0.44569-0.45229-0.70342
Burnley
Everton		22.8%
52.0%		25.2%
+370
-130
+365
-130
0
1		-0.59695-0.60342-0.65373
Newcastle United
Fulham		44.2%
29.1%		26.8%
+183
+145
+182
+140
1
0		-1.06807-1.07746-0.81758
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		34.4%
36.7%		28.9%
+152
+190
+155
+180
2
1		-0.95047-0.97051-1.06618
Brentford
Aston Villa		17.6%
60.6%		21.8%
+430
-150
+425
-150
3
3		-1.46694-1.46326-1.52221
Bournemouth
Luton Town		44.0%
28.5%		27.5%
-108
+290
-115
+285
1
2		-1.38629-1.39171-1.25572
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks61-3-2 (0.333)0-1.31561 
Sportsbooks61-3-2 (0.333)0-1.31715 
DRatings62-2-2 (0.500)0-1.31954
-0.00393
-0.00239

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.