English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+520
-190
+535
-200
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-109
u3+103
o3-115
u3+105
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest		66.2%
13.7%		20.1%
-265
+805
-270
+750
2
1		-0.34859-0.35579-0.41261
Wolverhampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		17.9%
58.4%		23.6%
+407
-151
+425
-160
0
0		-1.48952-1.48726-1.44240
Liverpool
Bournemouth		67.8%
13.1%		19.1%
-138
+348
-145
+350
4
0		-0.56997-0.56502-0.38821
West Ham United
Sheffield United		53.1%
21.8%		25.0%
+164
+190
+159
+185
2
2		-1.24136-1.22237-1.38462
Nottingham Forest
Brentford		20.2%
55.3%		24.5%
+405
-126
+360
-130
2
3		-0.60009-0.61865-0.59256
Crystal Palace
Arsenal		10.5%
72.2%		17.3%
+1145
-375
+986
-370
0
5		-0.26575-0.28827-0.32572
Tottenham
Manchester United		28.7%
46.0%		25.3%
+247
+103
+235
+104
2
2		-1.42791-1.41473-1.37275
Aston Villa
Everton		33.7%
38.9%		27.4%
+180
+158
+167
+165
0
0		-1.30317-1.34014-1.29444
Manchester City
Newcastle United		58.4%
19.0%		22.5%
-145
+410
-152
+410
3
2		-0.54910-0.54223-0.53703
Fulham
Chelsea		9.6%
73.9%		16.5%
+445
-155
+460
-170
0
1		-0.52521-0.50258-0.30271
Brighton and Hove Albion
West Ham United		24.9%
49.6%		25.5%
+126
+216
+125
+206
0
0		-1.34109-1.32878-1.36712
Newcastle United
Liverpool		11.1%
71.7%		17.2%
+660
-260
+665
-265
2
4		-0.35575-0.35488-0.33246
Arsenal
Fulham		52.5%
23.0%		24.5%
-172
+515
-200
+535
1
2		-1.84358-1.88915-1.46894
Bournemouth
Tottenham		8.6%
76.8%		14.6%
+305
-128
+280
-130
1
3		-0.60739-0.61990-0.26432
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest		60.0%
17.4%		22.6%
+121
+231
+117
+220
1
2		-1.21942-1.20935-1.74899
Brentford
Crystal Palace		20.5%
55.0%		24.4%
+291
+114
+270
+115
1
3		-0.78476-0.80227-0.59709
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.