English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+540
-208

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3-129
u3¼-122

Games for Nov 25, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Ipswich Town		55.5%
20.7%		23.8%
-150
+425
-140
+415
1
1		-1.46326-1.43217-1.43548
Liverpool
Southampton		73.6%
10.4%		16.0%
-293
+850
-325
+870
3
2		-0.31515-0.31512-0.30696
Tottenham
Manchester City		10.1%
74.4%		15.5%
+605
-236
+650
-245
4
0		-1.98036-2.03991-2.29511
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		43.0%
29.4%		27.6%
+185
+147
+178
+147
2
1		-1.07658-1.06767-0.84364
Wolverhampton
Fulham		19.2%
56.8%		24.0%
+495
-178
+480
-180
4
1		-1.81351-1.80205-1.65104
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		16.7%
61.5%		21.8%
+405
-135
+430
-135
2
2		-1.37980-1.37070-1.52395
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal		6.5%
80.1%		13.4%
+770
-240
+785
-260
0
3		-0.37496-0.36599-0.22167
Brentford
Everton		23.7%
51.2%		25.1%
+212
+138
+210
+140
0
0		-1.26844-1.25657-1.38182
Chelsea
Leicester City		54.2%
22.0%		23.7%
-212
+583
-225
+600
2
1		-0.41198-0.40623-0.61212
Arsenal
Chelsea		35.8%
35.8%		28.4%
+145
+205
+146
+205
1
1		-1.26394-1.25187-1.25889
Ipswich Town
Tottenham		6.8%
80.4%		12.8%
+1050
-366
+1000
-430
2
1		-2.46264-2.44196-2.68810
Newcastle United
Nottingham Forest		39.9%
31.5%		28.6%
+170
+182
+170
+170
3
1		-1.01647-1.03609-0.91977
Leicester City
Manchester United		11.8%
71.1%		17.1%
+810
-295
+775
-305
0
3		-0.31778-0.32849-0.34086
Aston Villa
Liverpool		10.3%
73.5%		16.2%
+565
-200
+600
-220
0
2		-0.43052-0.40656-0.30769
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		59.0%
18.5%		22.5%
-123
+322
-130
+325
1
2		-1.46612-1.48757-1.68643
Fulham
Crystal Palace		29.3%
43.0%		27.7%
+127
+248
+160
+240
2
0		-0.84583-0.93250-1.22868
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.