English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+515
-185
+535
-200
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-106
u3-107
o3-115
u3+105
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Burnley
Aston Villa		16.9%
61.0%		22.1%
+740
-248
+650
-245
2
3		-0.35999-0.37745-0.49379
Sheffield United
Manchester City		2.2%
91.1%		6.7%
+2951
-1130
+2600
-1400
0
2		-0.11451-0.11635-0.09367
Everton
Wolverhampton		24.7%
48.8%		26.4%
+157
+200
+170
+189
0
3		-1.12378-1.07605-0.71642
Chelsea
Luton Town		73.9%
9.4%		16.7%
-169
+475
-175
+480
3
2		-0.48418-0.48740-0.30251
West Ham United
Arsenal		15.6%
64.1%		20.3%
+950
-330
+855
-345
2
0		-2.37785-2.30219-1.85694
Tottenham
Brighton and Hove Albion		38.6%
34.4%		27.0%
+169
+154
+156
+155
2
4		-0.95124-0.97774-1.06607
Manchester City
Everton		73.5%
10.1%		16.4%
-161
+495
-175
+485
3
1		-0.51445-0.49692-0.30821
Wolverhampton
Brentford		27.6%
44.8%		27.6%
+252
+125
+285
+120
4
1		-1.27669-1.35220-1.28826
Crystal Palace
Chelsea		14.1%
65.1%		20.8%
+388
-125
+400
-125
1
2		-0.60780-0.60976-0.42898
Aston Villa
Manchester United		19.0%
58.7%		22.3%
+200
+137
+190
+130
2
3		-0.87450-0.88020-0.53305
Liverpool
Burnley		69.4%
12.1%		18.6%
-235
+689
-275
+650
2
0		-0.35822-0.35750-0.36600
Fulham
Bournemouth		31.3%
41.0%		27.8%
+287
+103
+270
+100
0
3		-0.71349-0.72602-0.89282
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle United		7.9%
76.9%		15.2%
+710
-235
+690
-240
3
1		-2.11611-2.09883-2.54199
Chelsea
Wolverhampton		47.4%
25.5%		27.0%
+120
+236
+125
+235
1
2		-1.23629-1.22946-1.36485
Arsenal
Liverpool		14.8%
65.5%		19.7%
+182
+150
+175
+145
1
1		-1.33291-1.33541-1.62354
Burnley
Fulham		24.9%
48.7%		26.3%
+432
-141
+400
-145
2
0		-1.69734-1.65973-1.38854
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.