English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+515
-185
+535
-200
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-108
u3-107
o3-105
u3+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Luton Town		67.4%
13.1%		19.5%
-156
+460
-160
+425
0
1		-1.74847-1.70678-2.03317
Everton
Tottenham		12.3%
70.2%		17.5%
+371
-140
+365
-145
1
2		-0.56525-0.56853-0.35441
Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest		32.0%
39.1%		28.9%
+153
+190
+150
+185
3
2		-0.95368-0.96029-1.14003
Manchester United
West Ham United		34.3%
38.3%		27.4%
+239
+115
+220
+140
0
2		-0.78847-0.87491-0.96006
Sheffield United
Aston Villa		7.7%
77.3%		15.0%
+1169
-450
+1150
-500
1
1		-2.01530-2.03103-1.89772
Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace		26.3%
46.7%		27.0%
+135
+235
+130
+225
1
1		-1.23337-1.24911-1.30956
Manchester United
Liverpool		11.9%
70.4%		17.7%
+715
-286
+800
-320
0
0		-1.82853-1.85828-1.73048
Aston Villa
Brentford		33.9%
38.4%		27.7%
+133
+225
+135
+219
2
1		-0.86822-0.87885-1.08226
Wolverhampton
West Ham United		20.5%
55.2%		24.3%
+315
-106
+320
-105
0
3		-0.69279-0.69673-0.59462
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		14.7%
65.0%		20.2%
+600
-210
+620
-225
0
2		-0.41353-0.40650-0.43006
Everton
Burnley		29.6%
42.8%		27.5%
+124
+237
+120
+235
2
0		-0.83103-0.83128-1.21716
Crystal Palace
Manchester City		5.6%
82.2%		12.2%
+1722
-575
+1300
-560
2
2		-2.09403-2.10111-2.10291
Fulham
Newcastle United		13.3%
67.4%		19.3%
+321
-110
+310
-120
0
3		-0.66748-0.65732-0.39417
Sheffield United
Chelsea		4.4%
84.6%		11.0%
+1300
-485
+1200
-500
0
2		-0.21819-0.21622-0.16698
Tottenham
Nottingham Forest		63.6%
15.8%		20.7%
-148
+425
-155
+400
2
0		-0.53744-0.54276-0.45334
Newcastle United
Tottenham		22.9%
53.7%		23.5%
+248
+107
+235
+110
1
4		-0.75279-0.76942-0.62247
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.