English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+560
-200
+575
-204
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-109
u3-101
o3-105
u3+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester City
Luton Town		86.6%
3.9%		9.5%
-503
+1408
-500
+1300
2
1		-0.21204-0.21971-0.14380
West Ham United
Fulham		36.4%
35.4%		28.1%
+236
+125
+216
+125
0
5		-0.83059-0.85266-1.03755
Chelsea
Everton		50.1%
24.5%		25.4%
+185
+161
+170
+160
0
2		-0.97732-0.99306-1.40715
Arsenal
Aston Villa		40.3%
32.7%		27.0%
+103
+272
+105
+261
0
1		-1.33203-1.31819-1.11896
Brentford
Sheffield United		48.6%
24.6%		26.8%
-127
+373
-130
+350
0
1		-1.58343-1.55344-1.40108
Burnley
Brighton and Hove Albion		17.7%
59.3%		23.0%
+565
-188
+570
-198
1
1		-1.56839-1.57364-1.47007
Nottingham Forest
Wolverhampton		14.0%
64.2%		21.8%
+361
-107
+335
-105
1
1		-1.27418-1.28021-1.52276
Bournemouth
Manchester United		9.7%
73.9%		16.4%
+395
-152
+410
-153
3
0		-1.63133-1.64496-2.33439
Liverpool
Crystal Palace		58.8%
18.4%		22.8%
-202
+600
-210
+625
2
1		-0.42860-0.40470-0.53122
West Ham United
Tottenham		17.5%
61.8%		20.6%
+395
-146
+365
-145
2
1		-1.62501-1.57818-1.74251
Newcastle United
Everton		41.2%
31.6%		27.2%
+132
+229
+135
+215
0
3		-1.21460-1.17571-1.15179
Manchester City
Aston Villa		66.5%
14.2%		19.3%
-155
+439
-145
+400
0
1		-1.70755-1.63619-1.95299
Chelsea
Manchester United		31.7%
40.6%		27.7%
+152
+188
+145
+180
1
2		-1.07787-1.07254-0.90084
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace		15.1%
63.5%		21.5%
+236
+132
+225
+133
2
0		-1.22946-1.21258-1.89326
Nottingham Forest
Fulham		16.4%
61.2%		22.4%
+301
+102
+290
+100
0
5		-0.73518-0.74244-0.49164
Brentford
Brighton and Hove Albion		20.3%
55.8%		23.9%
+367
-127
+325
-128
1
2		-0.59637-0.61428-0.58320
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.