English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+601
-205
+575
-204
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-110
u3-101
o3-105
u3+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Liverpool
Sheffield United		82.3%
5.5%		12.2%
-532
+1450
-600
+1400
2
0		-0.19524-0.19477-0.19536
Arsenal
Luton Town		73.8%
9.7%		16.4%
-493
+1532
-540
+1600
4
3		-0.21119-0.20691-0.30359
Burnley
Wolverhampton		21.5%
52.5%		26.0%
+317
-104
+320
-110
0
1		-0.69703-0.69473-0.64346
Tottenham
Manchester City		9.3%
75.8%		14.9%
+1075
-377
+1025
-450
3
3		-2.02943-2.03700-1.90515
Brighton and Hove Albion
Chelsea		14.2%
65.3%		20.4%
+430
-157
+410
-155
2
3		-0.51882-0.53367-0.42560
Fulham
Liverpool		5.3%
83.5%		11.2%
+1075
-385
+1050
-400
3
4		-0.25551-0.25766-0.18042
Crystal Palace
West Ham United		24.5%
49.8%		25.7%
+321
-105
+310
+100
1
1		-1.31211-1.28197-1.35930
Aston Villa
Bournemouth		42.5%
30.5%		27.0%
+116
+225
+110
+235
2
2		-1.42545-1.38386-1.30789
Manchester United
Newcastle United		27.8%
46.1%		26.1%
+280
+100
+260
+100
0
1		-0.71711-0.73326-0.77523
Everton
Nottingham Forest		40.8%
31.1%		28.1%
+173
+187
+171
+177
1
0		-1.02647-1.03398-0.89754
Wolverhampton
Arsenal		11.9%
69.2%		18.9%
+1375
-413
+1135
-395
1
2		-0.24319-0.26638-0.36745
Luton Town
Brentford		10.4%
72.1%		17.5%
+558
-182
+565
-185
1
3		-0.45730-0.45124-0.32706
Wolverhampton
Fulham		29.6%
42.2%		28.2%
+211
+146
+205
+143
2
3		-0.92811-0.93123-0.86268
Manchester United
Everton		43.3%
30.0%		26.7%
+167
+171
+165
+165
3
0		-1.01090-1.02223-0.83762
Aston Villa
Tottenham		17.2%
62.3%		20.5%
+157
+168
+161
+150
2
1		-0.97032-1.00133-1.75817
Arsenal
Brentford		49.7%
24.9%		25.4%
-160
+493
-160
+470
1
0		-0.51018-0.52552-0.69941
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.46326 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.43217 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.43548
0.02778
-0.00331

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.