English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+608
-231
+595
-250
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-106
u3½-134
o3½+120
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nottingham Forest
Wolverhampton		18.6%
56.2%		25.2%
+415
-135
+435
-141
0
1		-0.58229-0.57396-0.57689
Crystal Palace
Leicester City		35.5%
36.7%		27.9%
+203
+144
+200
+139
0
0		-1.28215-1.26858-1.27697
Brighton and Hove Albion
Brentford		43.0%
29.1%		27.9%
+130
+230
+125
+230
0
2		-1.22203-1.23467-1.23533
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest		38.9%
32.6%		28.5%
+115
+284
+100
+285
1
1		-1.30807-1.30756-1.25372
Manchester United
Everton		43.5%
29.9%		26.5%
+113
+259
+110
+250
2
1		-0.78010-0.79239-0.83133
Liverpool
Arsenal		43.6%
29.8%		26.6%
+168
+158
+160
+160
2
3		-0.96806-0.99147-1.21117
Fulham
West Ham United		13.4%
67.4%		19.2%
+480
-141
+440
-155
1
3		-0.53741-0.53998-0.39488
Leeds United
Crystal Palace		19.3%
57.5%		23.1%
+280
+106
+255
+105
1
2		-0.74501-0.76776-0.55304
Tottenham
Brighton and Hove Albion		40.5%
32.2%		27.3%
+185
+166
+175
+160
1
0		-1.06057-1.05228-0.90436
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		10.8%
70.8%		18.4%
+730
-193
+715
-217
0
3		-0.40986-0.41047-0.34486
Leicester City
Bournemouth		41.7%
31.7%		26.7%
+125
+250
+120
+230
1
2		-1.26298-1.23629-1.15021
Brentford
Newcastle United		24.9%
49.5%		25.6%
+420
-137
+410
-150
1
5		-0.56824-0.55588-0.70334
Southampton
Manchester City		3.9%
87.4%		8.7%
+2200
-799
+1950
-900
0
4		-0.14081-0.14844-0.13414
Nottingham Forest
Leicester City		16.0%
63.0%		21.0%
+384
-140
+380
-140
0
4		-0.57519-0.57982-0.46127
Aston Villa
Leeds United		30.1%
43.7%		26.2%
+197
+145
+205
+135
0
0		-1.28902-1.29113-1.34090
Manchester United
Manchester City		8.4%
77.0%		14.6%
+550
-226
+625
-250
3
6		-0.39171-0.36993-0.26133
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.