English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+608
-231
+595
-250
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-106
u3½-134
o3½+120
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester City
Aston Villa		73.0%
10.5%		16.5%
-307
+850
-320
+800
1
1		-1.81763-1.78189-1.80302
West Ham United
Chelsea		11.7%
70.6%		17.8%


1
2		-0.34854
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United		27.5%
45.5%		27.0%
+290
+110
+290
+102
0
0		-1.26058-1.27888-1.30944
Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest		31.8%
38.9%		29.3%
+265
+120
+270
+115
3
2		-1.31882-1.34167-1.14649
Southampton
Wolverhampton		21.4%
54.6%		23.9%
+260
+117
+240
+115
0
1		-0.80035-0.81581-0.60439
Leeds United
Brentford		24.0%
51.0%		25.0%
+260
+114
+245
+110
2
5		-0.78115-0.78858-0.67317
Fulham
Tottenham		7.9%
77.9%		14.1%
+550
-191
+525
-200
1
2		-0.44827-0.45086-0.24963
West Ham United
Chelsea		11.7%
70.6%		17.8%
+473
-165
+480
-175
1
2		-0.50048-0.49888-0.34854
Liverpool
Everton		70.7%
11.7%		17.6%
-249
+675
-280
+700
0
0		-1.70606-1.74749-1.73710
Manchester United
Leicester City		39.1%
34.2%		26.8%
+118
+225
+124
+220
1
0		-0.80845-0.84253-0.94002
Newcastle United
Liverpool		4.7%
84.8%		10.5%
+988
-350
+950
-360
1
2		-0.27598-0.28868-0.16471
Tottenham
West Ham United		42.8%
31.4%		25.8%
+125
+233
+120
+240
1
1		-1.30320-1.29273-1.35511
Aston Villa
Arsenal		15.2%
64.7%		20.1%
+525
-187
+535
-195
1
2		-0.45692-0.45872-0.43607
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City		2.5%
90.1%		7.4%
+2383
-1000
+2250
-1140
0
6		-0.12748-0.13003-0.10434
Wolverhampton
Bournemouth		35.4%
34.8%		29.8%
+131
+240
+130
+230
0
0		-1.22353-1.21221-1.21123
Everton
Leeds United		29.1%
44.9%		26.0%
+255
+111
+255
+110
1
1		-1.32388-1.31595-1.34746
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.