German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel 		43.6%
31.7%		24.7%
+119
+242
+125
+220
1.57
1.30		2.87
o2½-137
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+115
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Monchengladbach 		14.6%
67.8%		17.6%
+350
-121
+350
-125
1.05
2.44		3.49
o2¾-102
u2¾-112
o2½-125
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Union Berlin
Hoffenheim		28.6%
46.6%		24.8%
+310
-107
+300
-110
1
0		-1.43670-1.42737-1.25152
VfB Stuttgart
Darmstadt 98		30.1%
45.4%		24.5%
-200
+594
-204
+575
2
1		-0.41536-0.42193-1.20151
Augsburg
Mainz 05		21.0%
57.1%		21.9%
+315
-101
+300
-110
0
1		-0.70399-0.69547-0.56089
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Heidenheim		58.1%
20.2%		21.8%
-260
+690
-275
+675
2
1		-0.35885-0.35339-0.54357
Werder Bremen
FC Koln		21.3%
57.3%		21.4%
+206
+145
+197
+150
1
0		-1.14624-1.12316-1.54477
FC Koln
Hoffenheim		21.7%
57.1%		21.2%
+367
-131
+365
-134
1
1		-1.42649-1.42333-1.55254
Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart		33.8%
40.5%		25.7%
+640
-206
+600
-210
1
3		-0.42112-0.43348-0.90328
Bayern Munich
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		60.3%
19.2%		20.5%
+200
+139
+192
+136
0
3		-0.89889-0.89803-1.64932
VfL Bochum
Eintracht Frankfurt		12.0%
71.8%		16.2%
+378
-128
+390
-133
1
1		-1.38766-1.37235-1.82245
RB Leipzig
Augsburg		54.2%
23.0%		22.7%
-140
+369
-150
+350
2
2		-1.50688-1.52993-1.48100
Darmstadt 98
Borussia Monchengladbach		12.8%
70.7%		16.4%
+440
-150
+400
-155
0
0		-1.45809-1.47076-1.80515
Wolfsburg
Union Berlin		18.3%
60.1%		21.6%
+230
+136
+225
+135
0
1		-0.88274-0.89450-0.50934
FC Heidenheim
Werder Bremen		19.0%
60.0%		21.1%
+334
-116
+330
-118
2
1		-1.49343-1.50108-1.66337
Freiburg
Dortmund		15.8%
65.6%		18.6%
+555
-211
+545
-220
0
3		-0.41110-0.41635-0.42199
Union Berlin
Mainz 05		33.3%
40.3%		26.4%
+311
+108
+285
+105
1
1		-1.24181-1.24327-1.33268
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig		17.1%
62.3%		20.6%
+845
-268
+800
-300
0
2		-0.33385-0.33459-0.47392
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.62716 
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.62499 
DRatings65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.59426
0.03290
0.03073

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.