German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Monchengladbach
14.6%
67.8%
17.6%
+348
-120
+340
-125
1.05
2.44
3.49
o2¾-105
u2¾-114
o2½-125
u2½+105
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Orig.
Draw %
Closing
ML
Orig. Total
Goals
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel
43.6%
31.7%
24.7%
+131
+225
+130
+225
2.87
o2½-121
u2½+108
o2½-130
u2½+115
2nd H
54:00
3
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Hoffenheim
Wolfsburg
34.1%
40.3%
25.6%
+235
+112
+225
+110
2
2
-1.37563-1.37105-1.36387
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Koln
35.5%
39.3%
25.2%
+153
+206
+147
+200
0
2
-1.13790-1.14347-0.93374
Augsburg
VfL Bochum
31.3%
43.4%
25.3%
+214
+135
+220
+135
1
1
-1.29229-1.27622-1.37346
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayern Munich
5.9%
83.8%
10.3%
+1650
-672
+1400
-680
1
3
-0.16896-0.18054-0.17721
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Darmstadt 98
53.2%
24.1%
22.7%
-337
+950
-320
+890
2
0
-0.29239-0.31106-0.63023
Werder Bremen
Mainz 05
20.9%
57.6%
21.5%
+283
+110
+290
+105
1
0
-1.35934-1.38653-1.56724
VfB Stuttgart
Freiburg
15.5%
65.4%
19.1%
+129
+226
+120
+230
3
1
-0.84954-0.82698-1.86653
Dortmund
FC Heidenheim
66.4%
15.1%
18.5%
+100
+240
-105
+275
0
0
-1.49214-1.45188-1.68821
VfL Bochum
Dortmund
7.2%
81.0%
11.8%
+625
-255
+650
-280
1
3
-0.36205-0.34708-0.21046
Darmstadt 98
Union Berlin
12.9%
69.4%
17.7%
+450
-138
+435
-145
0
1
-0.56953-0.56895-0.36547
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
21.5%
57.2%
21.2%
+1015
-424
+925
-450
0
0
-2.07521-2.05113-1.54900
Bayern Munich
Augsburg
78.4%
8.3%
13.3%
-295
+722
-300
+720
3
2
-0.31400-0.32165-0.24351
FC Heidenheim
Hoffenheim
11.6%
72.2%
16.2%
+360
-138
+340
-142
1
1
-1.50049-1.50418-1.82059
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
58.2%
20.4%
21.3%
+169
+160
+161
+155
2
5
-0.98107-0.97721-1.58846
FC Koln
Wolfsburg
28.6%
47.0%
24.4%
+405
-137
+385
-140
1
1
-1.41770-1.39614-1.41001
Freiburg
Werder Bremen
45.9%
29.3%
24.8%
+207
+140
+200
+135
1
3
-0.90084-0.90118-1.22823
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59104 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60398 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.44499
0.14605
0.15899

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.