German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli
23.5%
54.6%
21.9%
+285
-110

1.21
1.96
3.17
o2½-122
u2½+102

Games for Nov 28, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Orig.
Draw %
Closing
ML
Orig. Total
Goals
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Monchengladbach
14.6%
67.8%
17.6%
+308
-107
+320
-110
3.49
o2¾-108
u2¾-110
o2½-130
u2½+110
1st H
10:00
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Freiburg
Werder Bremen
45.9%
29.3%
24.8%
+207
+140
+200
+135
1
3
-0.90084-0.90118-1.22823
Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.5%
60.0%
20.5%
+246
+125
+260
+125
0
1
-0.83480-0.82294-0.51131
Union Berlin
Bayern Munich
6.1%
82.5%
11.4%
+1650
-639
+1650
-775
0
1
-0.16698-0.16098-0.19251
Augsburg
Borussia Monchengladbach
15.7%
65.8%
18.5%
+319
-115
+300
-120
2
1
-1.44825-1.42491-1.85278
Werder Bremen
Bayern Munich
3.5%
89.1%
7.4%
+2500
-1003
+2300
-1100
1
0
-3.28555-3.21888-3.35269
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
19.8%
59.0%
21.2%
+177
+150
+170
+145
3
2
-1.03612-1.03544-1.61697
VfB Stuttgart
VfL Bochum
30.4%
44.8%
24.8%
-121
+335
-110
+310
0
1
-1.49598-1.43167-0.80263
Dortmund
FC Koln
49.6%
27.4%
23.0%
-114
+303
-115
+275
4
0
-0.64856-0.67303-0.70166
Hoffenheim
Freiburg
20.8%
57.6%
21.5%
+265
+102
+254
+105
2
3
-0.72950-0.74743-0.55097
Wolfsburg
FC Heidenheim
39.1%
34.1%
26.7%
+152
+190
+155
+178
1
1
-1.27977-1.26872-1.32013
Eintracht Frankfurt
Darmstadt 98
47.9%
28.5%
23.6%
+108
+284
+105
+268
2
2
-1.30778-1.31755-1.44541
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Monchengladbach
15.0%
67.2%
17.9%
-107
+284
-112
+280
1
3
-1.36999-1.37864-0.39823
Werder Bremen
VfL Bochum
31.2%
43.8%
25.0%
+245
+116
+230
+120
1
1
-1.33709-1.32580-1.38737
Dortmund
Darmstadt 98
62.2%
18.3%
19.5%
-160
+392
-164
+400
3
0
-0.52091-0.51861-0.47528
FC Heidenheim
FC Koln
14.8%
66.6%
18.6%
+285
+101
+270
-105
1
1
-1.34144-1.35973-1.68190
Eintracht Frankfurt
RB Leipzig
16.4%
64.7%
18.9%
+685
-235
+640
-248
1
0
-2.08860-2.04810-1.81058
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86724 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86474 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.82897
0.03827
0.03577

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.