German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli
23.5%
54.6%
21.9%
+290
-110

1.21
1.96
3.17
o2½-122
u2½+102

Games for Nov 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Eintracht Frankfurt
RB Leipzig
16.4%
64.7%
18.9%
+685
-235
+640
-248
1
0
-2.08860-2.04810-1.81058
Union Berlin
Freiburg
22.6%
53.9%
23.5%
+273
+114
+260
+110
0
0
-1.26330-1.28125-1.44685
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Augsburg
47.4%
28.3%
24.3%
-192
+512
-204
+580
1
0
-0.44685-0.40928-0.74689
Wolfsburg
Mainz 05
24.2%
52.4%
23.4%
+290
+105
+277
+100
1
1
-1.29251-1.31282-1.45034
Hoffenheim
Bayern Munich
5.4%
84.7%
9.8%
+1785
-785
+1635
-805
0
3
-0.15503-0.16174-0.16563
VfL Bochum
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
9.8%
75.4%
14.7%
+1200
-433
+1250
-485
0
4
-0.22198-0.22502-0.28195
Borussia Monchengladbach
Eintracht Frankfurt
25.7%
51.8%
22.5%
+357
-135
+350
-140
1
2
-0.58304-0.58445-0.65786
Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart
27.6%
48.2%
24.2%
+686
-262
+675
-275
0
3
-0.35243-0.35826-0.72985
Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg
75.3%
9.9%
14.8%
-210
+530
-230
+550
2
1
-0.41753-0.40148-0.28413
Freiburg
FC Heidenheim
56.1%
21.2%
22.7%
+130
+225
+130
+215
2
3
-1.20411-1.19274-1.55225
FC Koln
Union Berlin
19.9%
58.4%
21.7%
+360
-122
+360
-125
0
2
-0.62433-0.62663-0.53852
Mainz 05
Dortmund
11.8%
72.4%
15.8%
+477
-175
+460
-188
1
1
-1.56974-1.59914-1.84681
Darmstadt 98
Hoffenheim
14.0%
68.7%
17.2%
+535
-200
+550
-215
3
3
-1.59219-1.62893-1.75881
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
57.3%
21.1%
21.6%
-181
+475
-188
+500
1
1
-1.61114-1.66807-1.53285
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern Munich
3.4%
89.3%
7.3%
+425
-184
+450
-190
0
3
-0.46248-0.45355-0.11347
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
22.5%
55.8%
21.7%
+1030
-350
+1000
-365
0
3
-0.27241-0.27736-0.58300
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77599 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77152 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60896
0.16702
0.16256

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.