German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli
23.5%
54.6%
21.9%
+299
-106

1.21
1.96
3.17
o2½-114
u2½+100

Games for Nov 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Werder Bremen
FC Heidenheim
35.2%
38.5%
26.3%
+193
+132
+190
+130
2
4
-0.87314-0.87151-0.95477
Eintracht Frankfurt
VfL Bochum
48.1%
28.1%
23.8%
+154
+186
+146
+186
1
1
-1.26684-1.28334-1.43683
VfB Stuttgart
Mainz 05
20.2%
58.6%
21.3%
+168
+166
+170
+155
3
1
-1.01611-1.03502-1.60063
Augsburg
RB Leipzig
8.7%
77.4%
13.9%
+950
-360
+875
-375
0
3
-0.27633-0.27579-0.25629
Dortmund
Freiburg
34.8%
39.8%
25.4%
+133
+193
+135
+185
4
2
-0.87565-0.89659-1.05642
Union Berlin
Wolfsburg
35.7%
37.1%
27.2%
+255
+122
+240
+120
1
2
-0.82091-0.82707-0.99123
Hoffenheim
FC Koln
32.3%
43.3%
24.5%
+218
+118
+205
+125
3
1
-1.18603-1.15474-1.13153
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayern Munich
7.7%
79.8%
12.5%
+420
-166
+400
-171
2
2
-1.57624-1.58192-2.07752
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
39.9%
33.5%
26.6%
+111
+265
+110
+255
3
0
-0.77130-0.78076-0.91897
FC Koln
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.1%
60.9%
20.1%
+255
+120
+241
+120
1
1
-1.26411-1.24351-1.60639
Bayern Munich
Borussia Monchengladbach
67.1%
15.0%
17.9%
-385
+900
-390
+850
2
1
-0.26595-0.27233-0.39899
Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
33.0%
41.6%
25.3%
+168
+173
+155
+165
0
4
-1.02521-1.02449-0.87606
VfL Bochum
Augsburg
22.2%
55.4%
22.4%
+230
+123
+240
+120
2
2
-1.31987-1.30298-1.49803
Darmstadt 98
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
9.9%
75.5%
14.6%
+1175
-435
+1081
-450
1
5
-0.24272-0.24735-0.28145
Wolfsburg
Hoffenheim
20.0%
58.9%
21.1%
+160
+155
+160
+152
1
3
-0.96559-0.96656-0.52935
Freiburg
VfB Stuttgart
46.9%
28.5%
24.6%
+210
+130
+215
+122
0
5
-0.86377-0.83854-1.25664
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77599 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77152 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60896
0.16702
0.16256

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.