German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli 		23.5%
54.6%		21.9%
+315
-115

1.21
1.96		3.17
o2½-114
u2½+100

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayern Munich
Werder Bremen		67.2%
14.7%		18.1%
-372
+925
-400
+850
2
1		-0.26545-0.27232-0.39800
RB Leipzig
Freiburg		36.6%
36.7%		26.7%
-111
+319
-115
+302
1
0		-0.66324-0.67080-1.00474
VfL Bochum
Borussia Monchengladbach		12.9%
70.2%		16.9%
+250
+110
+240
+106
0
2		-0.76402-0.76722-0.35401
VfB Stuttgart
Hertha BSC		30.5%
44.5%		25.0%
+139
+214
+135
+205
1
2		-1.16264-1.15116-0.80979
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hoffenheim		25.6%
51.9%		22.5%
+171
+152
+165
+148
1
3		-0.94559-0.95443-0.65629
Union Berlin
Augsburg		24.9%
51.0%		24.1%
+140
+238
+133
+225
0
1		-1.23330-1.22227-0.67378
FC Koln
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		18.9%
60.7%		20.4%
+477
-162
+434
-165
2
1		-1.77602-1.72485-1.66484
Schalke 04
Mainz 05		16.5%
63.9%		19.5%
+414
-144
+400
-150
3
2		-1.66184-1.65648-1.80066
Mainz 05
Wolfsburg		32.5%
41.1%		26.3%
+211
+129
+210
+125
0
3		-0.85665-0.86003-0.88809
Hertha BSC
Bayern Munich		4.7%
86.2%		9.1%
+2400
-1025
+2575
-1000
0
2		-0.12299-0.12468-0.14826
Werder Bremen
Schalke 04		36.6%
37.3%		26.0%
+189
+143
+190
+135
1
2		-0.91113-0.89779-0.98604
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Union Berlin		51.5%
24.8%		23.7%
+163
+197
+147
+191
0
0		-1.20511-1.25488-1.44062
Freiburg
FC Koln		32.3%
42.3%		25.4%
+197
+152
+193
+145
1
0		-1.11170-1.12184-1.13122
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart		30.3%
45.2%		24.5%
+374
-137
+365
-130
1
2		-0.57485-0.59442-0.79405
Augsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt		14.1%
68.2%		17.7%
+460
-167
+440
-180
1
1		-1.54726-1.56189-1.73409
Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig		17.2%
63.4%		19.5%
+740
-265
+741
-275
0
1		-0.34544-0.34691-0.45648
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (9-0-2, 29 pts)22.34.37.474.486.2%99.5%0.4%0.0%0.0%
2Eintracht Frankfurt (7-2-2, 23 pts)16.29.48.557.00.8%52.6%26.2%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (6-2-3, 21 pts)16.68.39.158.92.5%65.9%21.9%0.0%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5-1-5, 20 pts)17.75.710.663.89.7%89.1%8.1%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (6-4-1, 19 pts)16.010.77.355.30.6%39.8%31.9%0.0%0.0%
6Borussia Monchengladbach (5-4-2, 17 pts)12.712.78.646.70.0%4.9%15.5%0.4%0.3%
7Freiburg (5-4-2, 17 pts)14.111.68.350.50.1%13.6%23.5%0.3%0.1%
8Mainz 05 (4-3-4, 16 pts)11.212.310.544.00.0%2.7%7.7%2.2%0.5%
9VfB Stuttgart (4-3-4, 16 pts)14.09.710.252.30.0%22.7%31.1%0.0%0.0%
10Union Berlin (4-3-4, 16 pts)12.211.410.446.90.1%4.0%13.1%0.6%0.4%
11Wolfsburg (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.712.79.644.70.0%2.9%9.7%1.4%0.5%
12Werder Bremen (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.213.29.743.20.0%1.2%5.4%3.7%1.4%
13Hoffenheim (3-5-3, 12 pts)10.214.49.440.00.0%0.5%2.7%7.0%3.1%
14Augsburg (3-5-3, 12 pts)10.214.49.440.00.0%0.6%2.2%6.4%3.9%
15FC Heidenheim (3-7-1, 10 pts)8.917.87.334.10.0%0.0%0.5%19.5%19.3%
16FC St. Pauli (2-7-2, 8 pts)7.718.18.231.30.0%0.0%0.1%24.7%35.7%
17Holstein Kiel (1-8-2, 5 pts)6.319.87.926.70.0%0.0%0.0%14.2%72.0%
18VfL Bochum (0-9-2, 2 pts)6.619.28.328.00.0%0.0%0.0%19.6%62.8%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.