German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli 		23.5%
54.6%		21.9%
+315
-115

1.21
1.96		3.17
o2½-114
u2½+100

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Freiburg		35.8%
37.9%		26.3%
+200
+144
+220
+130
1
1		-1.29149-1.31576-1.33701
VfB Stuttgart
Schalke 04		33.9%
40.4%		25.8%
+136
+225
+131
+215
1
2		-1.20387-1.19257-0.90684
VfL Bochum
Werder Bremen		15.5%
65.6%		18.9%
+301
-106
+300
-110
0
3		-0.68784-0.69047-0.42227
Augsburg
Hertha BSC		23.1%
54.0%		22.8%
+262
+115
+250
+110
0
2		-0.78825-0.78084-0.61589
Dortmund
Hoffenheim		39.1%
36.0%		24.9%
-144
+360
-145
+356
1
0		-0.55912-0.56625-0.93843
Wolfsburg
FC Koln		22.5%
54.9%		22.6%
+210
+136
+210
+130
2
0		-1.16293-1.17280-1.49090
Eintracht Frankfurt
RB Leipzig		16.3%
64.8%		18.9%
+460
-151
+420
-155
1
2		-0.52628-0.53926-0.43331
Borussia Monchengladbach
Mainz 05		29.3%
46.3%		24.4%
+226
+122
+240
+113
0
4		-0.82109-0.78594-0.76973
Mainz 05
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		15.6%
65.3%		19.0%
+307
-105
+300
-110
3
2		-1.42791-1.43297-1.85476
Hertha BSC
Dortmund		9.3%
76.9%		13.8%
+600
-200
+620
-238
1
4		-0.40729-0.39291-0.26290
Schalke 04
Union Berlin		13.6%
68.3%		18.2%
+525
-141
+490
-150
0
0		-1.29744-1.33930-1.70639
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt		20.3%
58.9%		20.8%
+478
-168
+470
-180
0
2		-0.48414-0.48396-0.52946
FC Koln
VfB Stuttgart		28.3%
47.6%		24.1%
+238
+131
+210
+130
0
3		-0.85569-0.88230-0.74236
Freiburg
VfL Bochum		50.2%
25.8%		24.0%
+160
+189
+148
+200
2
0		-0.97745-0.93846-0.69003
RB Leipzig
Wolfsburg		51.9%
24.3%		23.8%
+130
+212
+125
+215
3
0		-0.85189-0.84690-0.65495
Bayern Munich
Borussia Monchengladbach		62.3%
18.0%		19.6%
-205
+575
-243
+550
2
3		-1.91501-1.92148-1.71319
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (9-0-2, 29 pts)22.34.37.474.486.2%99.5%0.4%0.0%0.0%
2Eintracht Frankfurt (7-2-2, 23 pts)16.29.48.557.00.8%52.6%26.2%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (6-2-3, 21 pts)16.68.39.158.92.5%65.9%21.9%0.0%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5-1-5, 20 pts)17.75.710.663.89.7%89.1%8.1%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (6-4-1, 19 pts)16.010.77.355.30.6%39.8%31.9%0.0%0.0%
6Borussia Monchengladbach (5-4-2, 17 pts)12.712.78.646.70.0%4.9%15.5%0.4%0.3%
7Freiburg (5-4-2, 17 pts)14.111.68.350.50.1%13.6%23.5%0.3%0.1%
8Mainz 05 (4-3-4, 16 pts)11.212.310.544.00.0%2.7%7.7%2.2%0.5%
9VfB Stuttgart (4-3-4, 16 pts)14.09.710.252.30.0%22.7%31.1%0.0%0.0%
10Union Berlin (4-3-4, 16 pts)12.211.410.446.90.1%4.0%13.1%0.6%0.4%
11Wolfsburg (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.712.79.644.70.0%2.9%9.7%1.4%0.5%
12Werder Bremen (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.213.29.743.20.0%1.2%5.4%3.7%1.4%
13Hoffenheim (3-5-3, 12 pts)10.214.49.440.00.0%0.5%2.7%7.0%3.1%
14Augsburg (3-5-3, 12 pts)10.214.49.440.00.0%0.6%2.2%6.4%3.9%
15FC Heidenheim (3-7-1, 10 pts)8.917.87.334.10.0%0.0%0.5%19.5%19.3%
16FC St. Pauli (2-7-2, 8 pts)7.718.18.231.30.0%0.0%0.1%24.7%35.7%
17Holstein Kiel (1-8-2, 5 pts)6.319.87.926.70.0%0.0%0.0%14.2%72.0%
18VfL Bochum (0-9-2, 2 pts)6.619.28.328.00.0%0.0%0.0%19.6%62.8%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.