German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli 		23.5%
54.6%		21.9%
+315
-115

1.21
1.96		3.17
o2½-114
u2½+100

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mainz 05
Union Berlin		22.4%
54.5%		23.1%
+350
-107
+320
-105
1
2		-0.69259-0.71333-0.60708
Freiburg
Dortmund		15.7%
65.6%		18.7%
+410
-140
+399
-150
1
5		-0.55636-0.55589-0.42166
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Augsburg		54.3%
23.0%		22.8%
-108
+339
-112
+315
0
1		-1.47574-1.45171-1.47146
Dortmund
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		30.6%
45.2%		24.2%
+174
+155
+170
+150
2
0		-1.02803-1.03238-1.18502
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayern Munich		8.1%
79.2%		12.7%
+663
-255
+650
-289
1
1		-1.80764-1.80539-2.06625
Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen		23.3%
53.5%		23.2%
+107
+257
+105
+245
1
2		-1.29200-1.28240-0.62504
Union Berlin
Hertha BSC		38.7%
34.8%		26.5%
+121
+280
+111
+300
2
0		-0.81240-0.78248-0.95047
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hoffenheim		24.1%
53.7%		22.1%
+263
+105
+247
+100
4
1		-1.30807-1.28779-1.42171
VfL Bochum
Mainz 05		13.1%
69.3%		17.5%
+360
-120
+385
-140
2
5		-0.63181-0.58266-0.36616
Augsburg
Freiburg		14.5%
66.6%		18.9%
+447
-147
+460
-158
1
3		-0.54058-0.52464-0.40600
VfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig		11.6%
72.1%		16.4%
+910
-280
+800
-300
1
2		-0.32161-0.33798-0.32777
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen		34.8%
38.6%		26.5%
+168
+198
+165
+190
2
1		-1.00682-1.01735-1.05486
Borussia Monchengladbach
Augsburg		41.4%
33.2%		25.3%
+125
+225
+120
+220
0
1		-1.19660-1.20701-1.10130
Eintracht Frankfurt
Freiburg		28.3%
47.6%		24.1%
+226
+136
+210
+130
1
1		-1.26058-1.29496-1.42304
VfL Bochum
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		7.2%
80.6%		12.2%
+587
-207
+575
-215
0
2		-0.41655-0.42233-0.21529
Dortmund
Mainz 05		45.5%
30.1%		24.4%
+120
+225
+115
+235
2
1		-0.81353-0.78856-0.78757
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (9-0-2, 29 pts)22.34.37.474.486.2%99.5%0.4%0.0%0.0%
2Eintracht Frankfurt (7-2-2, 23 pts)16.29.48.557.00.8%52.6%26.2%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (6-2-3, 21 pts)16.68.39.158.92.5%65.9%21.9%0.0%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5-1-5, 20 pts)17.75.710.663.89.7%89.1%8.1%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (6-4-1, 19 pts)16.010.77.355.30.6%39.8%31.9%0.0%0.0%
6Borussia Monchengladbach (5-4-2, 17 pts)12.712.78.646.70.0%4.9%15.5%0.4%0.3%
7Freiburg (5-4-2, 17 pts)14.111.68.350.50.1%13.6%23.5%0.3%0.1%
8Mainz 05 (4-3-4, 16 pts)11.212.310.544.00.0%2.7%7.7%2.2%0.5%
9VfB Stuttgart (4-3-4, 16 pts)14.09.710.252.30.0%22.7%31.1%0.0%0.0%
10Union Berlin (4-3-4, 16 pts)12.211.410.446.90.1%4.0%13.1%0.6%0.4%
11Wolfsburg (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.712.79.644.70.0%2.9%9.7%1.4%0.5%
12Werder Bremen (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.213.29.743.20.0%1.2%5.4%3.7%1.4%
13Hoffenheim (3-5-3, 12 pts)10.214.49.440.00.0%0.5%2.7%7.0%3.1%
14Augsburg (3-5-3, 12 pts)10.214.49.440.00.0%0.6%2.2%6.4%3.9%
15FC Heidenheim (3-7-1, 10 pts)8.917.87.334.10.0%0.0%0.5%19.5%19.3%
16FC St. Pauli (2-7-2, 8 pts)7.718.18.231.30.0%0.0%0.1%24.7%35.7%
17Holstein Kiel (1-8-2, 5 pts)6.319.87.926.70.0%0.0%0.0%14.2%72.0%
18VfL Bochum (0-9-2, 2 pts)6.619.28.328.00.0%0.0%0.0%19.6%62.8%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.