MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 22, 2025

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Philadelphia Phillies (31-18)
Colorado Rockies (8-41)
Ranger Suárez
Germán Márquez
73.5%
26.5%
-262
+236
-255
+250
-1½-180
+1½+165
-1½-190
+1½+175
6.25
3.81
10.06
o11½-108
u11½-108
o11½-105
u11½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (23-25)
Oakland Athletics (22-28)
Tyler Anderson
Luis Severino
43.0%
57.0%
+111
-121
+115
-120
+1½-168
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+150
3.29
4.02
7.31
o10½-113
u10½+102
o10½-110
u10½+105
Overall Bet Value Active
Milwaukee Brewers (24-26)
Pittsburgh Pirates (17-33)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Mike Burrows
51.5%
48.5%
-118
-102
-110
+102
-1½+135
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-155
4.65
4.49
9.14
o9+100
u9-120
o9+100
u9-115
Cleveland Guardians (26-22)
Detroit Tigers (33-17)
Tanner Bibee
Jack Flaherty
42.5%
57.5%
+115
-125
+113
-123
+1½-183
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+170
4.05
4.84
8.89
o8-103
u8-110
o8+105
u8-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Atlanta Braves (24-24)
Washington Nationals (22-27)
AJ Smith-Shawver
Trevor Williams
59.2%
40.8%
-151
+141
-154
+145
-1½+107
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-124
5.05
4.09
9.14
o8½-103
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-110
Baltimore Orioles (16-32)
Boston Red Sox (25-26)
Cade Povich
Lucas Giolito
47.2%
52.8%
+117
-123
+117
-125
+1½-180
-1½+162
+1½-180
-1½+170
3.78
4.08
7.86
o8-107
u8½-120
o8½+105
u8½-120
Seattle Mariners (28-20)
Houston Astros (25-24)
George Kirby
Lance McCullers
54.1%
45.9%
-131
+122
-130
+120
-1½+122
+1½-138
-1½+125
+1½-140
4.70
4.28
8.98
o8½-115
u8½+105
o8½-115
u8½+100
Games for May 21, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Texas Rangers (25-25)
New York Yankees (29-19)
40.4%
59.6%
+140
-146
+141
-145
+1½-158
-1½+145
+1½-170
-1½+150
6.27
o7+110
u7-113
o7+105
u7-120
2nd
BOT
0
0
San Diego Padres (27-20)
Toronto Blue Jays (24-24)
52.0%
48.0%
-112
+105
-111
+108
-1½+147
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-155
8.59
o8½-118
u8½+102
o8½-120
u8½+105
1st
TOP
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
39.8%
60.2%
+152
-156
+150
-160
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+128
3
4
-0.50150-0.50078-0.50780
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
54.9%
45.1%
-108
+100
-108
+102
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+146
+1½-150
1
4
-0.71219-0.71728-0.79600
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
31.0%
69.0%
+188
-205
+187
-200
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-105
4
2
-1.07696-1.06930-1.16993
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
45.9%
54.1%
+101
-109
+100
-108
+1½-205
-1½+177
+1½-185
-1½+172
1
2
-0.66984-0.67446-0.61382
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
53.8%
46.2%
+117
-125
+118
-122
+1½-165
-1½+152
+1½-160
-1½+150
6
3
-0.79098-0.78755-0.62031
Kansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles
54.5%
45.5%
-122
+113
-120
+113
-1½+123
+1½-135
-1½+132
+1½-140
8
9
-0.77499-0.77096-0.78827
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
52.2%
47.8%
-106
-103
+100
-102
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+162
+1½-170
1
2
-0.70019-0.68824-0.73737
Detroit Tigers
Pittsburgh Pirates
51.8%
48.2%
+118
-126
+114
-120
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
5
1
-0.79542-0.77347-0.65774
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians
46.8%
53.2%
+115
-123
+117
-122
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+145
3
0
-0.78202-0.78504-0.75927
Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
47.2%
52.8%
+141
-150
+143
-150
+1½-145
-1½+131
+1½-140
-1½+127
8
5
-0.89446-0.89936-0.74974
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
56.3%
43.7%
-136
+126
-136
+130
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+104
+1½-115
7
4
-0.56976-0.56217-0.57405
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
41.7%
58.3%
+156
-166
+159
-160
+1½-125
-1½+118
+1½-125
-1½+118
8
5
-0.95459-0.95314-0.87563
Los Angeles Angels
San Diego Padres
36.0%
64.0%
+275
-310
+280
-298
+1½+140
-1½-155
+1½+140
-1½-155
4
0
-1.34427-1.34680-1.02212
Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
42.7%
57.3%
+161
-169
+158
-166
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+125
3
1
-0.97067-0.95938-0.85088
Chicago White Sox
Oakland Athletics
45.9%
54.1%
+116
-124
+117
-125
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
6
3
-0.78651-0.79098-0.77958
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
62.9%
37.1%
-225
+210
-220
+205
-1½-155
+1½+135
-1½-140
+1½+140
12
3
-0.38251-0.38995-0.46304
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks105-5 (0.500)0-0.70748 
Sportsbooks105-5 (0.500)0-0.70131 
DRatings106-4 (0.600)0-0.70988
-0.00241
-0.00857

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.