MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 16, 2025

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago White Sox (14-29)
Chicago Cubs (25-19)
Shane Smith
Cade Horton
25.0%
75.0%
+213
-219
+200
-215

+1½+105
-1½-125
3.39
6.01
9.40

o11-120
u11+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Guardians (25-18)
Cincinnati Reds (20-24)
Tanner Bibee
Brady Singer
53.5%
46.5%
-120
+115
-117
+112
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-147
4.24
3.87
8.11
o9+100
u9-113
o9-105
u9-110
Pittsburgh Pirates (15-29)
Philadelphia Phillies (25-18)
Andrew Heaney
Ranger Suárez
34.9%
65.1%
+206
-209
+200
-220
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½+100
3.28
4.85
8.13
o8½-103
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Washington Nationals (18-26)
Baltimore Orioles (15-26)
MacKenzie Gore
Cade Povich
46.8%
53.2%
+102
-110
-105
-102
+1½-203
-1½+180

4.31
4.65
8.96
o9-103
u9-110
o9-105
u9-105
New York Mets (28-16)
New York Yankees (25-18)
Tylor Megill
Carlos Rodon
43.9%
56.1%
+123
-130
+126
-136
+1½-165
-1½+151
+1½-162
-1½+150
3.73
4.36
8.09
o9-103
u9-110
o8½-125
u9-105
Detroit Tigers (29-15)
Toronto Blue Jays (21-21)
Jack Flaherty
Bowden Francis
55.5%
44.5%
-125
+118
-125
+118
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
4.34
3.76
8.10
o8½+100
u8½-105
o8½+100
u8½-115
Tampa Bay Rays (19-23)
Miami Marlins (16-26)
Taj Bradley
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
54.6%
45.4%




4.18
3.69
7.87


Atlanta Braves (21-22)
Boston Red Sox (22-23)
Chris Sale
Garrett Crochet
46.0%
54.0%
+111
-120
+115
-124
+1½-200
-1½+176
+1½-195
-1½+175
3.53
3.94
7.47
o7½-115
u7½+102
o8-105
u8-115
St. Louis Cardinals (24-20)
Kansas City Royals (25-20)
Andre Pallante
Cole Ragans
41.2%
58.8%
+138
-147
+138
-150
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
3.98
4.90
8.88
o8½-108
u8½-108
o8½+100
u8½-115
Houston Astros (22-20)
Texas Rangers (23-21)
Lance McCullers
Nathan Eovaldi
42.5%
57.5%
+158
-165
+163
-174
+1½-139
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+120
3.21
4.00
7.21
o8-105
u8-103
o8-115
u8+100
Minnesota Twins (23-20)
Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)
Joe Ryan
Chad Patrick
56.3%
43.7%
-105
+101
-108
+100
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+160
+1½-170
3.85
3.19
7.04
o7½-110
u7½-103
o7½-115
u7½+100
Colorado Rockies (7-36)
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Corbin Burnes
25.6%
74.4%

+320
-390


2.73
5.28
8.01

o9½+100
u9½-120
Seattle Mariners (23-19)
San Diego Padres (27-15)
Logan Evans
Stephen Kolek
42.2%
57.8%
+135
-145
+132
-152
+1½-153
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+130
4.13
4.95
9.08
o8½-118
u8½+102
o8½-120
u8½+100
Los Angeles Angels (17-25)
Los Angeles Dodgers (28-15)
Jack Kochanowicz
Dustin May
28.1%
71.9%
+252
-285
+250
-285
+1½+130
-1½-140
+1½+125
-1½-145
3.24
5.50
8.74
o9½+102
u9½-118
o9-120
u9+100
Oakland Athletics (22-21)
San Francisco Giants (25-19)
JP Sears
Logan Webb
33.3%
66.7%
+156
-170
+152
-170
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+130
2.62
4.35
6.97
o7-113
u7-103
o7-110
u7-110
Games for May 15, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Milwaukee Brewers
Miami Marlins
49.2%
50.8%
-117
+107
-115
+110
-1½+140
+1½-153
-1½+140
+1½-158
6
2
-0.63974-0.63673-0.70985
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
58.4%
41.6%
-177
+163
-179
+170
-1½-115
+1½-104
-1½-110
+1½+100
3
7
-0.98602-1.00512-0.87690
Tampa Bay Rays
Oakland Athletics
53.4%
46.6%
-123
+114
-125
+115
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+134
+1½-145
3
6
-0.77949-0.78592-0.76404
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
54.8%
45.2%
-130
+121
-128
+123
-1½+127
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-144
1
7
-0.81054-0.81180-0.79487
Washington Nationals
New York Yankees
45.8%
54.2%
+109
-117
+113
-119
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
3
4
-0.63522-0.62273-0.61164
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
44.2%
55.8%
+175
-190
+175
-185
+1½-122
-1½+105
+1½-124
-1½+106
2
3
-0.44150-0.44482-0.58331
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
41.6%
58.4%
+175
-183
+170
-180
+1½-125
-1½+111
+1½-125
-1½+112
8
9
-0.44619-0.45497-0.53717
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
50.0%
50.0%
-135
+131
-138
+132
-1½+125
+1½-131
-1½+120
+1½-135
4
5
-0.84460-0.85238-0.69305
Tampa Bay Rays
Oakland Athletics
45.8%
54.2%
+114
-121
+117
-125
+1½-190
-1½+166
+1½-175
-1½+165
1
2
-0.61706-0.60404-0.61319
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
58.4%
41.6%
-171
+159
-164
+156
-1½-111
+1½-101
-1½-110
+1½-106
2
9
-0.96861-0.95176-0.87731
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
49.0%
51.0%
-152
+144
-150
+146
-1½+103
+1½-119
-1½+105
+1½-115
6
2
-0.51849-0.51730-0.71243
Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Guardians
51.1%
48.9%
+131
-140
+135
-140
+1½-165
-1½+148
+1½-160
-1½+155
3
0
-0.85334-0.86325-0.67203
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
40.6%
59.4%
+190
-200
+192
-210
+1½-115
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+100
0
5
-0.41690-0.40916-0.52145
Toronto Blue Jays
Houston Astros
41.7%
58.3%
+135
-139
+131
-138
+1½-155
-1½+136
+1½-151
-1½+135
4
10
-0.54908-0.55767-0.53899
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
59.1%
40.9%
-141
+131
-143
+138
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+108
+1½-115
3
0
-0.55384-0.53883-0.52662
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
50.4%
49.6%
+112
-119
+115
-116
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+175
5
4
-0.76638-0.76761-0.68508
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks64-2 (0.667)0-0.58604 
Sportsbooks64-2 (0.667)0-0.58880 
DRatings64-2 (0.667)0-0.59093
-0.00488
-0.00212

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.