UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for April 12, 2025

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TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Diego Lopes
Alexander Volkanovski 		40.0%
60.0%
+111
-123
+115
-125
Paddy Pimblett
Michael Chandler 		50.6%
49.4%
-155
+138
-155
+145
Jean Silva
Bryce Mitchell 		65.3%
34.7%
-251
+225
-250
+225
Dominick Reyes
Nikita Krylov 		40.0%
60.0%
+165
-185
+170
-190
Patricio Pitbull
Yair Rodriguez 		38.2%
61.8%
+180
-195
+180
-200
Sean Woodson
Dan Ige 		47.6%
52.4%
-165
+145
-165
+150
Virna Jandiroba
Yan Xiaonan 		64.0%
36.0%
-150
+130
-140
+130
Chase Hooper
Jim Miller 		72.4%
27.6%
-750
+575
-700
+575
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Sedriques Dumas 		62.2%
37.8%
-190
+168
-185
+170
Julian Erosa
Darren Elkins 		74.1%
25.9%
-350
+290
-340
+290
Mitch Raposo
Su Mudaerji 		37.2%
62.8%
+163
-185
+175
-180
Volatility Bet Value Active
Marco Tulio
Tresean Gore 		71.2%
28.8%
-330
+270
-340
+295
Hailey Cowan
Nora Cornolle 		40.9%
59.1%
+145
-168
+155
-170
Fights for Apr 11, 2025
Fights for Apr 26, 2025

Completed Fights

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TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Kevin Borjas
Ronaldo Rodriguez		44.6%
55.4%
+175
-200
+180
-190
Win
Loss		-1.04146-1.04185-0.80641
Ateba Gautier
Jose Medina		74.8%
25.2%
-450
+390
-450
+375
Win
Loss		-0.22269-0.22897-0.29073
Melquizael Costa
Christian Rodriguez		39.1%
60.9%
+180
-210
+190
-200
Win
Loss		-1.06360-1.07614-0.93958
Julia Polastri
Loopy Godinez		28.5%
71.5%
+180
-210
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.42344-0.42898-0.33542
Vinc Pichel
Rafa Garcia		29.9%
70.1%
+305
-320
+280
-300
Loss
Win		-0.28071-0.30075-0.35586
Gabriel Miranda
Jamall Emmers		19.0%
81.0%
+400
-500
+425
-420
Loss
Win		-0.21511-0.21175-0.21110
Austin Hubbard
MarQuel Mederos		37.2%
62.8%
+130
-138
+135
-130
Loss
Win		-0.55953-0.56124-0.46545
Sean Brady
Leon Edwards		52.7%
47.3%
-135
+130
-135
+125
Win
Loss		-0.56352-0.57304-0.63966
Carlos Ulberg
Jan Blachowicz		61.1%
38.9%
-350
+285
-340
+300
Win
Loss		-0.28815-0.28030-0.49325
Kevin Holland
Gunnar Nelson		51.1%
48.9%
+120
-135
+115
-130
Win
Loss		-0.81706-0.79536-0.67080
Alexia Thainara
Molly McCann		57.7%
42.3%
-205
+177
-200
+180
Win
Loss		-0.42991-0.42898-0.55010
Chris Duncan
Jordan Vucenic		28.1%
71.9%
+253
-270
+230
-260
Win
Loss		-1.27422-1.21885-1.26833
Morgan Charriere
Nathaniel Wood		63.0%
37.0%
-105
+105
-115
+105
Loss
Win		-0.71785-0.74028-0.99474
Chris Padilla
Jai Herbert		46.6%
53.4%
+120
-138
+135
-150
Win
Loss		-0.82225-0.87962-0.76293
Felipe dos Santos
Lone'er Kavanagh		31.6%
68.4%
+215
-245
+220
-240
Loss
Win		-0.36951-0.36652-0.38050
Mick Parkin
Marcin Tybura		42.7%
57.3%
-170
+155
-175
+160
Loss
Win		-0.95763-0.97625-0.55649
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Season Prediction Results

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 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks118-3 (0.727)0-0.53679 
Sportsbooks118-3 (0.727)0-0.54253 
DRatings117-4 (0.636)0-0.59004
-0.05325
-0.04751

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.