UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Court McGee
Tim Means 		41.9%
58.1%
+160
-185
+170
-190
Ovince Saint Preux
Ryan Spann 		28.4%
71.6%
+205
-230
+210
-220
Tecia Pennington
Carla Esparza 		53.0%
47.0%
-177
+156
-170
+165
Volatility Bet Value Active
Alexander Hernandez
Austin Hubbard 		66.0%
34.0%
-130
+117
-125
+115
Overall Bet Value Active
Ihor Potieria
Cesar Almeida 		30.8%
69.2%
+310
-390
+320
-330
Volatility Bet Value Active
Iasmin Lucindo
Marina Rodriguez 		59.7%
40.3%
-180
+160
-175
+160
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		62.8%
37.2%
-210
+190
-210
+195
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		54.2%
45.8%
-150
+137
-150
+135
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		75.2%
24.8%
-1100
+800
-1000
+800
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		61.4%
38.6%
-140
+128
-135
+125
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		38.0%
62.0%
+145
-167
+140
-150
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira 		26.1%
73.9%
+350
-445
+360
-420
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 12, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Davey Grant
Adrian Yanez		29.4%
70.6%
+240
-265
+250
-265
Loss
Win		-0.34011-0.33183-0.34827
Tucker Lutz
Patrick Sabatini		42.6%
57.4%
-130
+115
-120
+115
Loss
Win		-0.79536-0.77596-0.55436
Rafa Garcia
Natan Levy		57.4%
42.6%
-115
+100
-110
-110
Win
Loss		-0.66000-0.69315-0.55436
Loopy Godinez
Loma Lookboonmee		47.6%
52.4%
-137
+135
-140
+135
Win
Loss		-0.55166-0.54782-0.74188
Aori Qileng
Cody Durden		40.1%
59.9%
+145
-160
+140
-150
Loss
Win		-0.50878-0.52736-0.51301
Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
Sean Soriano		35.4%
64.6%
+250
-285
+255
-265
Win
Loss		-1.27841-1.27465-1.03750
Sam Hughes
Luana Pinheiro		25.8%
74.2%
+300
-360
+335
-360
Loss
Win		-0.27720-0.25754-0.29806
Yair Rodriguez
Max Holloway		27.6%
72.4%
+485
-570
+500
-550
Loss
Win		-0.18309-0.17980-0.32338
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Ben Rothwell		46.3%
53.7%
+147
-165
+150
-155
Win
Loss		-0.93135-0.92410-0.76945
Leah Letson
Felicia Spencer		19.8%
80.2%
+300
-345
+290
-330
Loss
Win		-0.27950-0.28827-0.22043
Khaos Williams
Miguel Baeza		36.0%
64.0%
+140
-150
+145
-155
Win
Loss		-0.89199-0.91198-1.02115
Julio Arce
Song Yadong		36.1%
63.9%
+125
-131
+125
-138
Loss
Win		-0.57869-0.56900-0.44815
Joel Alvarez
Thiago Moises		41.0%
59.0%
+230
-270
+225
-250
Win
Loss		-1.22615-1.20041-0.89162
Andrea Lee
Cynthia Calvillo		46.8%
53.2%
+110
-101
+105
-115
Win
Loss		-0.72040-0.74028-0.75971
Collin Anglin
Sean Woodson		30.7%
69.3%
+305
-340
+330
-350
Loss
Win		-0.27727-0.26160-0.36706
Cortney Casey
Liana Jojua		61.4%
38.6%
-350
+290
-330
+320
Win
Loss		-0.28493-0.27022-0.48778
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks149-5 (0.643)0-0.57910 
Sportsbooks149-5 (0.643)0-0.57456 
DRatings1410-4 (0.714)0-0.55019
0.02892
0.02438

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.